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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology

ScienceDirect Publication: Ecological Modelling
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Modeling food web effects of low sardine and anchovy abundance in the California Current
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Isaac C. Kaplan, Laura E. Koehn, Emma E. Hodgson, Kristin N. Marshall, Timothy E. Essington Populations of sardine, anchovy, and other forage species can fluctuate to low levels due to climate variability and fishing, leading to indirect effects on marine food webs. In the context of recent declines of sardine (Sardinops sagax) and anchovy (Engraulis mordax) in the California Current, we apply an end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model that is spatially explicit, includes trophic interactions...
The impact of primary and export production on the formation of the secondary nitrite maximum: A model study
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Aike Beckmann, Inga Hense The so-called secondary nitrite maximum (SNM) is a pronounced subsurface feature in many oxygen deficient zones of the ocean. A nitrite layer of up to several hundred meters thickness indicates high microbial activity and nitrogen loss from the system. To study the effects of primary and export production on the SNM, we have developed a one-dimensional ecosystem model for oxygen deficient zones. Our model couples the marine nitrogen and oxygen cycles with physical water...
The role of bivalves in the Balgzand: First steps on an integrated modelling approach
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): S. Saraiva, L. Fernandes, J. van der Meer, R. Neves, S.A.L.M. Kooijman The present paper describes a process oriented modelling tool that integrates physical, biogeochemical, ecological and physiological factors governing bivalve populated marine ecosystems. This modelling tool is the result of the coupling between an individual-based population model for bivalves (based on the Dynamic Energy Budgets theory, DEB) and a hydrodynamic/biogeochemical model (MOHID Water Modelling System). The...
Establishing nearshore marine secondary productivity baseline estimates for multiple habitats in coastal Mississippi and Alabama using AQUATOX 3.1 NME for use in the Deepwater Horizon natural resource...
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Eldon C. Blancher, Richard A. Park, Jonathan S. Clough, Scott P. Milroy, W. Monty Graham, Chet F. Rakocinski, J. Read Hendon, Jerry D. Wiggert, Robert Leaf The establishment of a defensible baseline for ecosystem productivity is important in Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) and other assessment studies so that an estimate of the ecosystem injury can be established. In order to establish the overall NRDA baseline productivity for the Deepwater Horizon Oil release (DWH), the...
Simulation results from a coupled model of carbon dioxide and methane global cycles
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Vladimir F. Krapivin, Costas A. Varotsos, Vladimir Yu. Soldatov The problem of greenhouse effect due to the anthropogenic influence on the global cycles of greenhouse gases is discussed extensively in the scientific literature. This paper aims to contribute solving this problem by presenting the simulation results of a new model of combined carbon and methane biogeochemical cycles considering the spatial structure of their sources and sinks on a global scale. All reservoirs and fluxes of the...
Sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration for testing robustness of the BASGRA model in different environments
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Anne-Grete Roer Hjelkrem, Mats Höglind, Marcel van Oijen, Jürgen Schellberg, Thomas Gaiser, Frank Ewert Proper parameterisation and quantification of model uncertainty are two essential tasks in improvement and assessment of model performance. Bayesian calibration is a method that combines both tasks by quantifying probability distributions for model parameters and outputs. However, the method is rarely applied to complex models because of its high computational demand when used with...
Why input matters: Selection of climate data sets for modelling the potential distribution of a treeline species in the Himalayan region
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Bobrowski Maria, Schickhoff Udo Betula utilis is a major constituent of alpine treeline ecotones in the western and central Himalayan region. The objective of this study is to analyse for the first time the performance of different climatic predictors in modelling the potential distribution of B. utilis in the subalpine and alpine belts of the Himalayan region. Using Generalized Linear Models (GLM) we aim at examining climatic factors controlling the species distribution under current climate...
Analyzing the effects of estuarine freshwater fluxes on fish abundance using artificial neural network ensembles
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Hua Zhang, Paul V. Zimba Decreased estuarine freshwater inflow can adversely impact commercially and recreationally important fisheries as many fish species utilize estuaries during a portion of their life. To ameliorate effect on estuarine fisheries, regression models using fish catch and freshwater inflow have been implemented to determine minimum flow necessary to sustain these populations. These models typically use streamflow data, with no correction for evaporation and precipitation. Our...
A proposed family of Unified models for sigmoidal growth
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Kathleen M.C. Tjørve, Even Tjørve The four-parameter Unified Richards model has been applied to the growth of different animal taxa. Traditionally researchers of animal growth have favoured three-parameter models such as the logistic, Gompertz, and von Bertalanffy models. However, the growth-rate parameters of the traditional versions of these models are incomparable, and model forms returning starting points for the curves are not available. Therefore, we have reviewed and developed the family...
Giant panda survival crisis remains serious based on the ecosystem catastrophe model
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Zhigang Yan, Junqing Li The habitat area of the giant panda and the number of wild populations have increased significantly over the past decade, while habitat fragmentation and survival crisis of local populations have become more serious. To assess the current survival status of the giant panda, we analyzed the Third and Fourth National Panda Survey data using trend line analysis, moving T-test, and catastrophe theory. The catastrophe potential function and the cusp catastrophe model were...
Study on environment-economy-society relationship model of Liaohe River Basin based on multi-agent simulation
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Tianfang Han, Chuntao Zhang, Yan Sun, Xiaomin Hu Based on sustainable development theory and the method of system dynamics and multi-agent simulation, the environment-economy-society relationship model of Liaohe River Basin is constructed by coupling the system dynamics model with the multi-agent model in the software-NetLogo. This paper selects the Qinghe, Fanhe and Puhe River of Liaohe River Basin which are located in Shenyang and Tieling City as the study boundary, then the overall...
Emergy evaluation of benthic ecosystems influenced by upwelling in northern Chile: Contributions of the ecosystems to the regional economy
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Fernando Berrios, Daniel E. Campbell, Marco Ortiz Emergy evaluations of three benthic ecosystem networks found in Mejillones, Antofagasta and Tongoy Bays, located on the coast of northern Chile, were carried out with the intent of documenting the contributions of these coastal ecosystems to the economy. The productivity of these bays is strongly influenced by the Humboldt Current System, as well as by the loss of upwelled flows that occurs during El Nino events. The results of the emergy...
Beyond big fish: The case for more detailed representations of top predators in marine ecosystem models
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Merel Goedegebuure, Jessica Melbourne-Thomas, Stuart P. Corney, Mark A. Hindell, Andrew J. Constable Seabirds and marine mammals are generally not well represented in marine ecosystem models, despite the important roles that these groups play in determining ecosystem dynamics. This is an important gap in model development, particularly for end-to-end ecosystem models, which are becoming increasingly important tools for fisheries and ecosystem based management and assessment. Examination of...
Evaluating impacts of intensive shellfish aquaculture on a semi-closed marine ecosystem
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Dongyan Han, Yong Chen, Chongliang Zhang, Yiping Ren, Ying Xue, Rong Wan Shellfish aquaculture production in the world, especially in China, has expanded rapidly in recent years. However, understanding of potential impacts of shellfish aquaculture on the trophic structure of ecosystem remains limited. Using an Ecopath with Ecosim model, we compared various shellfish aquaculture intensity scenarios to evaluate impacts of shellfish aquaculture on a semi-closed marine ecosystem, located in...
Quantifying indirect groundwater-mediated effects of urbanization on agroecosystem productivity using MODFLOW-AgroIBIS (MAGI), a complete critical zone model
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Samuel C. Zipper, Mehmet Evren Soylu, Christopher J. Kucharik, Steven P. Loheide II Sustainably accommodating future population growth and meeting global food requirements requires understanding feedbacks between ecosystems and belowground hydrological processes. Here, we introduce MODFLOW-AgroIBIS (MAGI), a new dynamic ecosystem model including groundwater flow, and use MAGI to explore the indirect impacts of land use change (urbanization) on landscape-scale agroecosystem productivity (corn...
Assessing how uncertainty and stochasticity affect the dispersal of fish in river networks
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Johannes Radinger, Franz Hölker, Christian Wolter Species dispersal and population dynamics determine the spatio-temporal patterns of species spread and thus, species invasions and recolonization following habitat restorations. However, the effects of stochasticity and spatial habitat heterogeneity on species spread are poorly understood. By coupling a fish dispersal model and a population growth model in GIS, we simulated the spread of a model fish species (Salmo trutta) over five years in...
Accounting for uncertainty in predictions of a marine species: Integrating population genetics to verify past distributions
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Rosa M. Chefaoui, Ester A. Serrão We develop a new perspective on the uncertainties affecting the predictions of coastal species distributions using patterns of genetic diversity to assess the congruence of hindcasted distribution models. We model the niche of the subtidal seagrass Cymodocea nodosa, for which previous phylogeographic findings are used to contrast hypotheses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Mediterranean and adjacent Atlantic coastal regions. We focus on amelioration of...
Space promotes the coexistence of species: Effective medium approximation for rock-paper-scissors system
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Takashi Nagatani, Kazunori Sato, Genki Ichinose, Kei-ichi Tainaka Stochastic cellular automata for rock-paper-scissors games are related to Lotka-Volterra model. Simulations are usually performed by two methods local and global interactions. It is well known that the population dynamics with local interaction is stable, where all species coexist. In contrast, global interaction leads to extinction. So far, theories such as mean-field theory and pair approximation have been presented, but they...
Relative ranges of mating and dispersal modulate Allee thresholds in sessile species
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Jorge Velazquez-Castro, Markus P. Eichhorn Sessile organisms, including plants and benthic macrofauna, are often restricted in the ranges over which they are able to reproduce and disperse. This leads to spatial patterning within populations, causing the effective population density around each individual to depart from the average across its range. This has important implications for population dynamics, in particular the minimum density at which populations are able to maintain positive growth...
Mathematical models for invasive species management: Grey squirrel control on Anglesey
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Hannah Jones, Andrew White, Peter Lurz, Craig Shuttleworth The control of invasive species and protection of threatened native species require well-developed policy and species management strategies. Mathematical models provide a key tool that can be used to test, develop and optimise strategies to manage invasive species. We use the native red squirrel and invasive grey squirrel system on the Island of Anglesey, UK, as a case study system in which to parameterise a mathematical model that...

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