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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology

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Sensitivity of WOFOST-based modelling solutions to crop parameters under climate change
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Carlo Gilardelli, Roberto Confalonieri, Giovanni Alessandro Cappelli, Gianni Bellocchi The formalization of novel equations explicitly modelling the impact of extreme weather events into the crop model WOFOST (EMS: existing modelling solution; MMS: modified modelling solution) is proposed as a way to reduce the uncertainty in estimations of crop yield. A sensitivity analysis (SA) was performed to assess the effect of changing parameters values on the yield simulated by the model (both EMS and...
An integrated stochastic economic-ecological-social model with stratified-population
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Pablo T. Rodriguez-Gonzalez, Ramiro Rico-Martinez, Vicente Rico-Ramirez There has been a growing interest on the study of the human-ecosystems sustainability from an integrated point of view. The recognition of sustainability as a complex long-term problem has led to the development of tools that address it from a multidisciplinary perspective. Several mathematical models have been developed to support the understanding of the interactions between human activities and natural resources, and the...
Patch dynamics of various plant-animal interactions in fragmented landscapes
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Zhichao Xu, Yang Shen, Jinbao Liao Habitat destruction, characterized by patch loss and patch fragmentation, has been recognized as one of leading factors driving species loss. Although some studies have already explored how patch loss affects metacommunity dynamics, the effect of patch configurational fragmentation remains vaguely understood. Here we construct a patch-dynamic model for various plant-animal interactions in fragmented landscapes, including neutralism (0, 0), poison (0...
Long-term structural and functional changes driven by climate variability and fishery regimes in a sandy beach ecosystem
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Diego Lercari, Omar Defeo, Leonardo Ortega, Luis Orlando, Ignacio Gianelli, Eleonora Celentano Structural and functional changes in a sandy beach ecosystem in the southwestern Atlantic (Barra del Chuy, Uruguay) were assessed by contrasting four Ecopath trophic models and performing temporal dynamic simulations using Ecosim. Each model (1982, 1989, 1996 and 2012) represents a historical period of a clam fishery in which regulatory structure, management tools and resource status varied...
Notes from an introductory course on Field Systems Ecology
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Bernard C. Patten, Brian D. Fath For over 40 years, Professor Bernie Patten, offered a course on Field Systems Ecology at the University of Georgia in Athens, Georgia, USA. The course combined systems analysis approaches and natural field ecology in a way that gave the students new perspectives on making conceptual and formal models of the natural world. The course employed extensive use of outdoor field laboratories at a nearby park, which had multiple ecological habitats. The main progression was...
Responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to drought over China: Modeling sensitivities of the interactive nitrogen and dynamic vegetation
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Binghao Jia, Yuanyuan Wang, Zhenghui Xie Drought can trigger both immediate and time-lagged responses of terrestrial ecosystems and even cause sizeable positive feedbacks to climate warming. In this study, the influences of interactive nitrogen (N) and dynamic vegetation (DV) on the response of the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems of China to drought were investigated using the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5). Model simulations from three configurations of CLM4.5 (C, carbon cycle...
Sustainability factors in dynamical systems modeling: Simulating the non-linear aspects of multiple equilibria
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Joseph W. Dorsey, Leon C. Hardy What is sustainability? Sustainability is a concept that can be defined in many ways depending upon a society's perception of current material needs and the actual material needs of future generations. Much of our ability to achieve sustainability entails developing indicators and measurements that will guide us to this goal. This paper suggests that we can strengthen the prediction of sustainability indicators by adopting a “multiple equilibria” approach for a...
Food web dynamics in trophic hierarchies
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Anett Endrédi, Vera Senánszky, Simone Libralato, Ferenc Jordán Using network analysis for making predictions about food web dynamics is one of the major challenges in systems ecology. Since there are several notoriously difficult methodological problems with food webs, only a comparative perspective can help. We study a standard database for trophic flow networks and analyse the correlation between structure and dynamics in strictly hierarchical food webs (directed acyclic graphs, DAGs). To...
A hierarchical modelling framework for assessing physical and biochemical characteristics of a regulated river
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Andrew W. Tranmer, Clelia L. Marti, Daniele Tonina, Rohan Benjankar, Dana Weigel, Leticia Vilhena, Claire McGrath, Peter Goodwin, Matthew Tiedemann, Jim Mckean, Jörg Imberger Regulated rivers below dams have traditionally been managed using a minimum instream flow to provide adequate aquatic habitat. However, dam management, in conjunction with changes in climate and land use, challenges downstream ecosystem functions that cannot be properly addressed by a simple minimum flow...
Quantitative predictions from competition theory with an incomplete knowledge of model parameters tested against experiments across diverse taxa
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Hugo Fort The capacity of community ecology for making quantitative predictions is often limited by incomplete empirical information which precludes obtaining reasonable estimates of model parameters. This is particularly the case for communities with large species richness S since it is practically impossible to perform the S monoculture experiments (to obtain the species carrying capacities) plus the S ×(S −1)/2 pairwise experiments (required to estimate the entire set of interspecific...
Mathematical modelling for phytoplankton distribution in Sundarbans Estuarine System, India
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Tanaya Das, Saranya Chakraborti, Joydeep Mukherjee, Goutam Kumar Sen Mathematical modeling is an important tool to study planktonic ecosystem dynamics and various mechanisms involved in its interaction with hydrological regime. The difficulty arises when describing plankton dynamics under wide range of estuarine environmental conditions due to inadequate knowledge to interpret the mechanism to which the environmental nature of a given situation force the model condition towards the observation...
Natural capital and environmental flows assessment in marine protected areas: The case study of Liguria region (NW Mediterranean Sea)
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): C. Paoli, P. Povero, E. Burgos, G. Dapueto, G. Fanciulli, F. Massa, P. Scarpellini, P. Vassallo A methodology based on emergy analysis for the calculation of the biophysical value of the stocked biomass (natural capital) was applied to the Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) of Portofino (PF) and Cinque Terre (CT). The resources exploited, on a yearly base, to maintain the natural capital itself alive (environmental flows) were accounted too. Emergy analysis is an accounting method useful to...
Causal networks reveal the dominance of bottom-up interactions in large, deep lakes
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Victor Frossard, Frédéric Rimet, Marie-Elodie Perga Ecological dynamics often exhibit significant temporal variability and sudden shifts that characterize their non-equilibrium and nonlinear nature, challenging our ability to understand and predict their trajectories. Among a set of ecological time series originating from the long-term monitoring of three large and deep lakes, nonlinear forecasting methods (Simplex projection and S-map) indicated that most of the time series exhibited hallmarks...
A methodology to quantify the long-term changes in social networks of competing species
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Majid Bani-Yaghoub, Aaron Reed Current methods of social network analysis need detailed data, which are often unavailable for long periods of time (e.g. decades). The main objective of the present work is to develop and test a methodology that requires less detailed data and relies on user-defined mathematical models. This methodology is a three-step procedure described as follows. First, long-term population data is divided into n subsets based on the desired time unit (e.g. months, or years...
Constructed wetland modelling for watershed ecosystem protection under a certain economic load: A case study at the Chaohu Lake watershed, China
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Jingneng Ni, Jiuping Xu, Mengxiang Zhang The two major aims of watershed management are regional economic development and watershed ecosystem protection. In this paper, constructed wetland (CW) technology is employed to examine watershed ecosystem protection under a certain regional economic load. The Chaohu Lake watershed in China was chosen as the target study area and fuzzy random variables used to describe the uncertainties. Then, a bi-level optimization model for watershed-scale CW planning...
Population dynamics of mutualism and intraspecific density dependence: How θ-logistic density dependence affects mutualistic positive feedback
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Christopher M. Moore, Samantha A. Catella, Karen C. Abbott Mutualism describes the biological phenomenon where two or more species are reciprocally beneficial, regardless of their ecological intimacy or evolutionary history. Classic theory shows that mutualistic benefit must be relatively weak, or else it overpowers the stabilizing influence of intraspecific competition and leads to unrealistic, unbounded population growth. Interestingly, the conclusion that strong positive interactions lead to...
Inside Front Cover - Editorial Board Page
10. Januar 2018
Publication date: 10 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 367
Estimation of periphyton dynamics in a temperate catchment using a distributed nutrient-runoff model
10. Januar 2018
Publication date: 10 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 367 Author(s): So Kazama, Kengo Watanabe This study develops a model to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of stream algae on a basin scale by integrating an existing periphyton model into a distributed hydrothermal model to calculate the daily periphyton biomass throughout the Natori River basin. The influence of inorganic phosphorus on periphyton growth is incorporated into the periphyton model. The inorganic phosphorus concentration is simulated using the distributed pollute model depending on land use...
Education is not a panacea for reducing human–black bear conflicts
10. Januar 2018
Publication date: 10 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 367 Author(s): Alia M. Dietsch, Kristina M. Slagle, Sharon Baruch-Mordo, Stewart W. Breck, Lana M. Ciarniello
Assessing the performance of common landscape connectivity metrics using a virtual ecologist approach
10. Januar 2018
Publication date: 10 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 367 Author(s): Craig E. Simpkins, Todd E. Dennis, Thomas R. Etherington, George L.W. Perry Due to increasing habitat fragmentation and concern about its ecological effects, there has been an upsurge in the use of landscape connectivity estimates in conservation planning. Measuring connectivity is challenging, resulting in a limited understanding of the efficacy of connectivity estimation techniques and the conditions under which they perform best. We evaluated the performance of four commonly used...

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