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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology

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Simulating the gross primary production and ecosystem respiration of estuarine ecosystem in North China with AQUATOX
10. April 2018
Publication date: 10 April 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 373 Author(s): Jinxia Yan, Jingling Liu, Xiaoguang You, Xuan Shi, Lulu Zhang AQUATOX, coupled water quality and estuarine hydrodynamic model based on food web, was implemented to simulate the temporal variations of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re) in Haihe estuary of North China, also, the parameter sensitivity was calculated and the main factors of GPP and Re were analyzed. Results showed that GPP ranged from 16 to 1789 mg O2 m−2 d−1 and Re from 56 to...
Using the EFDC model to evaluate the risks of eutrophication in an urban constructed pond from different water supply strategies
Publication date: 24 March 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 372 Author(s): Xi Luo, Xuyong Li Managers of urban lakes are faced with the challenge of finding a balance between saving water resources and preventing eutrophication. One way to address both of these issues is to use the unconventional water source s such as stormwater and reclaimed water to maintain the water supply in urban constructed ponds. We validated and calibrated the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code and then evaluated the risks of eutrophication from various water supply scenarios, such as different...
Forage-SAFE: a model for assessing the impact of tree cover on wood pasture profitability
Publication date: 24 March 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 372 Author(s): S. García de Jalón, A. Graves, G. Moreno, J.H.N. Palma, J. Crous-Durán, S. Kay, P.J. Burgess Whilst numerous studies have examined the environmental benefits of introducing additional trees within wood pasture systems few studies have assessed the impact on farm profitability. This paper describes a model, called Forage-SAFE, which has been developed to improve understanding of the management and economics of wood pastures. The model simulates the daily balance between food production...
Predicting canopy biophysical properties and sensitivity of plant carbon uptake to water limitations with a coupled eco-hydrological framework
Publication date: 24 March 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 372 Author(s): Lauren E.L. Lowman, Ana P. Barros Variations in soil water availability and atmospheric water demand impact seasonal canopy dynamics are often represented by the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) and leaf area index (LAI) under a coupled eco-hydrologic framework. Changes in FPAR and LAI lead to changes in evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP), coupling the water and carbon cycles. In this study, a predictive Dynamic Canopy Biophysical Properties (DCBP) model...
Editorial Board
Publication date: 10 March 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 371
A frame-based modelling approach to understanding changes in the distribution and abundance of sardine and anchovy in the southern Benguela
Publication date: 10 March 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 371 Author(s): K.E. Watermeyer, A. Jarre, L.J. Shannon, P. Mulumba, J. Botha A number of ecologically and economically important species in the southern Benguela, including the forage fish sardine Sardinops sagax and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus, have undergone southward/eastward shifts in their distribution in the 1990s/early 2000s. In addition to the effects of changes in prey availability to top predators, the spatially-distinct nature of the system means the location of a stock has implications for its...
Review of spatial analysis of urban carbon metabolism
Publication date: 10 March 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 371 Author(s): Yan Zhang, Qiong Wu, Brian D. Fath Urban areas have contributed 75% of the global CO2 emissions. Therefore, seeking global carbon reduction solutions from the perspective of city has become a focus of decision-makers in charge of environmental protection. The carbon emission reduction potential in land management and spatial adjustment has become an important mean for achieving regional and global sustainable development. In this paper, we systematically review and synthesize four main aspects of...
Deviations on a theme: Peat patterning in sub-tropical landscapes
Publication date: 10 March 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 371 Author(s): Christa L. Zweig, Susan Newman, Colin J. Saunders, Fred H. Sklar, Wiley M. Kitchens Patterned landscapes have long been a popular setting to test hypotheses about the effects of processes on ecosystem structure. The combination of scale-dependent and positive feedback theory is one of the most well-supported in current literature, each explaining separate aspects of patterned peatlands. These theories have been developed from dynamics in boreal peatlands and tested in boreal systems, but the...
Forecasting the ongoing invasion of Lagocephalus sceleratus in the Mediterranean Sea
Publication date: 10 March 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 371 Author(s): Gianpaolo Coro, Luis Gonzalez Vilas, Chiara Magliozzi, Anton Ellenbroek, Paolo Scarponi, Pasquale Pagano Invasive species from the Suez Canal, also named “Lessepsian species”, often have an ecological and financial impact on marine life, fisheries, human well-being and health in the Mediterranean Sea. Among these, the silver-cheeked toad-fish Lagocephalus sceleratus (Gmelin, 1789) has rapidly colonised the eastern Mediterranean basin and is currently moving westwards. This pufferfish has...
Estimating acute mortality of Lepidoptera caused by the cultivation of insect-resistant Bt maize – The LepiX model
Publication date: 10 March 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 371 Author(s): Lorenz Fahse, Phillip Papastefanou, Mathias Otto The cultivation of Bt maize, genetically modified to be resistant to insect pests, has led to intense scientific and political debate about its possible adverse impacts on biodiversity. To better address this question we developed an individual-based simulation model (LepiX). LepiX considers the temporal dynamics of maize pollen shedding and larval phenology, and pollen deposition on host plants related to distance from the maize field, in order to...
Agent Based Modelling (ABM) of eelgrass (Zostera marina) seedbank dynamics in a shallow Danish estuary
Publication date: 10 March 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 371 Author(s): Kadri Kuusemäe, Miriam von Thenen, Troels Lange, Erik Kock Rasmussen, Michael Pothoff, Ana I. Sousa, Mogens R. Flindt Odense Fjord (Denmark) has suffered from a drastic decline in eelgrass (Zostera marina) coverage during the last decades. In 1983 eelgrass still covered about 25% of the estuary, which in 2005 was reduced to less than 2%. The alarming decline in the past decades initiated preliminary restoration activities, where it was questioned whether the present low eelgrass biomass is...
Exploring adaptation strategies of coffee production to climate change using a process-based model
Publication date: 10 March 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 371 Author(s): Eric Rahn, Philippe Vaast, Peter Läderach, Piet van Asten, Laurence Jassogne, Jaboury Ghazoul The response of coffee (Coffea arabica L.) agronomical performance to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) is uncertain. Improving our understanding of potential responses of the coffee plant to these changes while taking into consideration agricultural management is required for identifying best-bet adaptation strategies. A mechanistic crop modelling approach...
Bayesian calibration of simple forest models with multiplicative mathematical structure: A case study with two Light Use Efficiency models in an alpine forest
Publication date: 10 March 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 371 Author(s): Maurizio Bagnara, Marcel Van Oijen, David Cameron, Damiano Gianelle, Federico Magnani, Matteo Sottocornola Forest models are increasingly being used to study ecosystem functioning, through simulation of carbon fluxes and productivity in different biomes and plant functional types all over the world. Several forest models based on the concept of Light Use Efficiency (LUE) rely mostly on a simplified mathematical structure and empirical parameters, require little amount of data to be run, and...
Reprint of “Validation approaches of an expert-based Bayesian Belief Network in northern Ghana, West Africa”
Publication date: 10 March 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 371 Author(s): Janina Kleemann, Enrico Celio, Christine Fürst Model validation is a precondition for credibility and acceptance of a model. However, it appears that there is no scientific standard for validation of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs). In this paper, we present a novel combination of BBN validation approaches. A set of qualitative and quantitative validation approaches for the BBN structure, the Conditional Probability Tables and the BBN output is presented and discussed. The validation approaches...
An industrial ecology teaching exercise on cycling e-waste
Publication date: 10 March 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 371 Author(s): Patrick Kangas, Gary E. Seibel We describe an Industrial Ecology teaching exercise on the recycling of discarded consumer electronics (“e-waste”), using a computer as an example. In the exercise students, working in groups, disassemble a used computer into component parts. The parts are classified and inventoried in terms of mass. Then, using available information on the prices of materials that can be readily recycled, an economic assessment of the recycled computer is made. We provide a sample...
Editorial Board
10. Februar 2018
Publication date: 10 February 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 369
Predicting Heliothis (Helicoverpa armigera) pest population dynamics with an age-structured insect population model driven by satellite data
10. Februar 2018
Publication date: 10 February 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 369 Author(s): Moshe Blum, David Nestel, Yafit Cohen, Eitan Goldshtein, David Helman, Itamar M. Lensky The cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) is among the most damaging agricultural insect pests in the world. The life cycle of H. armigera is temperature dependent and as such modeling its population dynamics for integrated pest management (IPM) purposes requires accurate temperature information throughout the area of interest, which is not always available. We present, for the first time, a continuous...
Integrating spatio-temporal variation in resource availability and herbivore movements into rangeland management: RaMDry—An agent-based model on livestock feeding ecology in a dynamic...
10. Februar 2018
Publication date: 10 February 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 369 Author(s): Pascal Fust, Eva Schlecht Fast growth of the human population puts high pressure on pasture habitats due to increasingly high grazing intensities on shrinking grazing land. Adapted herbivore management is needed to maintain the long term productivity of the rangeland ecosystem, especially in dry climates where precipitation is highly erratic and where forage yield and quality of the pasture are highly dynamic. We used an agent-based approach to develop a spatially explicit model for a case study...
A class exercise for Systems Ecology: Synthesis of stream energetics and testing Allen’s paradox
10. Februar 2018
Publication date: 10 February 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 369 Author(s): Charles A.S. Hall, Frances Knickmeyer, Adrian Wiegman, Andrew Brainard, Avriel Rose Diaz, Carolyn Huynh, Jerry Mead We report energy stocks and flows, as well as other ecosystem properties, measured in Little Sandy Creek in Upstate New York as part of an intensive class project in a graduate-level Systems Ecology course at the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry. Our study synthesizes information on Little Sandy Creek both as a whole system and through examination of key...
Multi-scale analysis of the energy metabolic processes in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) urban agglomeration
10. Februar 2018
Publication date: 10 February 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 369 Author(s): Yan Hao, Menghui Zhang, Yan Zhang, Chenling Fu, Zhongming Lu The area of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) region is about 2.25% of China land area. But the energy consumption and carbon emission of Jing-Jin-Ji region account for more than 10% of China’s total consumption and emissions. To reduce the region’s energy consumption and carbon emission, we studied energy flow process in this region. The previous research on energy flow is concentrated on a single scale, with little...

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