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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology

ScienceDirect Publication: Ecological Modelling
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Integrating natural capital assessment and marine spatial planning: A case study in the Mediterranean sea
10. Oktober 2017
Publication date: 10 October 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 361 Author(s): F. Picone, E. Buonocore, R. D’Agostaro, S. Donati, R. Chemello, P.P. Franzese Marine and coastal ecosystems are among the most productive environments in the world and their stocks of natural capital offer a bundle of vital ecosystem services. Anthropogenic pressure seriously threatens health and long-term sustainability of marine environments. For these reasons, integrated approaches capable of combining ecological and socio-economic aspects are needed to achieve nature conservation and...
An integral projection model with YY-males and application to evaluating grass carp control
10. Oktober 2017
Publication date: 10 October 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 361 Author(s): Richard A. Erickson, Eric A. Eager, Marybeth K. Brey, Michael J. Hansen, Patrick M. Kocovsky Invasive fish species disrupt ecosystems and cause economic damage. Several methods have been discussed to control populations of invasive fish including the release of YY-males. YY-males are fish that have 2 male chromosomes compared to a XY-male. When YY-males mate, they only produce male (XY) offspring. This decreases the female proportion of the population and can, in theory, eradicate local...
Self-organized spatial structures of locust groups emerging from local interaction
10. Oktober 2017
Publication date: 10 October 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 361 Author(s): Jamila Dkhili, Uta Berger, Lalla Mina Idrissi Hassani, Saïd Ghaout, Ronny Peters, Cyril Piou Collective movements are found in several taxa and many different scales. Locusts and grasshoppers are known for their formation of groups and collective movement. These groups exhibit self-organized characteristics of typical shapes and density gradients. Three different species-dependent characteristics of group structures can be distinguished in locusts and grasshoppers: spots (circular form...
Complex network modeling for mechanisms of red tide occurrence: A case study in Bohai Sea and North Yellow Sea of China
10. Oktober 2017
Publication date: 10 October 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 361 Author(s): Xiangjun Du, Fengjing Shao, Shunyao Wu, Rencheng Sun, Changying Wang Red tide is an abnormal ecological phenomenon, and it severely affects marine ecosystem, economic growth and human health. The mechanism of red tide occurrence has been studied for many years, and a lot of indicators and techniques have been developed. Although these studies have effectively expanded the knowledge of mechanisms of red tide occurrence, the combination effect of water quality factors of different sea areas on...
Developing and validating a multi-level ecological model of eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) in the Bornholm Basin – A case for domain-specific languages
10. Oktober 2017
Publication date: 10 October 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 361 Author(s): Maria E. Pierce, Tom Warnke, Uwe Krumme, Tobias Helms, Cornelius Hammer, Adelinde M. Uhrmacher Recent changes in environmental and ecological conditions are a major reason that established stock assessment macro-models no longer provide reliable estimates on the stock status of eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). To account for a complex ecological system, an individual-based modelling approach is needed that turns the attention from the overall population to the individual fish, its...
Modeling the biogeochemical role of photosynthetic sulfur bacteria in phosphorus cycling in a managed eutrophic lake
10. Oktober 2017
Publication date: 10 October 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 361 Author(s): Peng Wang, Gaboury Benoit Vertical distributions of total dissolved phosphorus (TDP), sulfide, chlorophyll, and primary production produced by photosynthetic sulfur bacteria (PSB) were studied in a small stratified, highly productive, and dimictic lake, Linsley Pond, CT, USA. The goal was to understand and model the role of PSB in a lake undergoing trophic transformation as a result of lake management involving reduced phosphorus loading. High levels of sulfide developed in the anoxic hypolimnion...
Evaluating management strategies in the conservation of the critically endangered Blue-throated Macaw (Ara glaucogularis)
10. Oktober 2017
Publication date: 10 October 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 361 Author(s): María Laura Maestri, Rosana Ferrati, Igor Berkunsky We model the dynamics of the remaining wild population of the Blue-throated Macaw (Ara glaucogularis), a critically endangered and Bolivian endemic species exposed to different management strategies. The model becomes a tool to quantify how effective management actions may be. We construct a birth-pulse, post breeding census, deterministic, stage structured projection matrix model to describe the population dynamics. The model shows that...
Simulated water quality effects of alternate grazing management practices at the ranch and watershed scales
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Jong-Yoon Park, Srinivasulu Ale, W. Richard Teague Inappropriate grazing management with high stocking rates can result in significantly higher levels of runoff, sediment and nutrient losses to surface water resources. An assessment of water quality effects of various grazing management practices enables the selection of appropriate management practices. The overall objective of this study was to assess the impacts of alternate grazing management practices including the heavy continuous (HC...
Using ecosystem modeling to evaluate trade-offs in coastal management: Effects of large-scale river diversions on fish and fisheries
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Kim de Mutsert, Kristy Lewis, Scott Milroy, Joe Buszowski, Jeroen Steenbeek A coupled ecosystem modeling approach was used to evaluate how select combinations of large-scale river diversions in the lower Mississippi River Deltaic Plain may affect the distribution, biomass, and landings of fish and shellfish over decades relative to a future without action. These river diversions are controlled openings in the riverbank of the Mississippi River designed to reintroduce sediment, water, and...
A road map for developing and applying object-oriented bayesian networks to “WICKED” problems
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Nicole Benjamin-Fink, Brian K. Reilly Wildlife managers, conservation-based authorities and NGOS are often tasked to provide management guidelines concerning “wicked” problems and Ecosystem Services (ESS) with scarce data and limited resources. More often than not, this dilemma is further intensified by competing objectives and the need for economic profitability. A range of quantitative and qualitative models are often applied to model ecosystem services. However, lack of quantifiable data...
The effect of reproductive occurrences and human descriptors on invasive pet distribution modelling: Trachemys scripta elegans in the Iberian Peninsula
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Filipe Banha, Mafalda Gama, Pedro Manuel Anastácio Pet release is important for the introduction of invasive species but propagule pressure from this pathway is higher in areas with intense human presence. In fact, potential invaders are frequently released into areas with sub-optimal environmental conditions, and are not able to reproduce or establish viable populations. SDMs are mainly focused on determining species environmental suitability and in the case of invasive species modelling these...
Pesticides and bees: Ecological-economic modelling of bee populations on farmland
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Adam Kleczkowski, Ciaran Ellis, Nick Hanley, David Goulson Production of insect-pollinated crops typically relies on both pesticide use and pollination, leading to a potential conflict between these two inputs. In this paper we combine ecological modelling with economic analysis to investigate the effects of pesticide use on wild and commercial bees, whilst allowing farmers to partly offset the negative effects of pesticides on bee populations by creating more on-farm bee habitat. Farmers...
A stochastic movement model reproduces patterns of site fidelity and long-distance dispersal in a population of Fowler’s toads (Anaxyrus fowleri)
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Philippe Marchand, Morgan Boenke, David M. Green Although amphibians typically exhibit high site fidelity and low dispersal, they do undertake rare, long-distance movements. The factors influencing these events remain poorly understood, partly because amphibian spring movements tend to radiate from breeding sites and the animals are often difficult to locate at other times of the year. In this study, we investigate whether these movement patterns can be reproduced by a parsimonious model where...
Dynamic response of East Asian Greater White-fronted Geese to changes of environment during migration: Use of multi-temporal species distribution model
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Xueyan Li, Yali Si, Luyan Ji, Peng Gong Understanding how migratory species select habitats is essential for applied ecology and biological conservation. Although migratory species move across a wide range of environments during migration, their dynamic response to environments has rarely been considered. Taking advantage of the fine spatial-temporal resolution of satellite tracking data, we studied habitat selection of East Asian greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) along their...
Multi-model approach to predict phytoplankton biomass and composition dynamics in a eutrophic shallow lake governed by extreme meteorological events
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Carolina Crisci, Rafael Terra, Juan Pablo Pacheco, Badih Ghattas, Mario Bidegain, Guillermo Goyenola, Juan José Lagomarsino, Gustavo Méndez, Néstor Mazzeo A multi-model approach to predict phytoplankton biomass and composition was performed in a eutrophic Uruguayan shallow lake which is the second drinking water source of the country. We combined statistical (spectral analysis and Machine learning techniques) and physically based models to generate, for the first time in this...
Investigating the potential impacts of ocean warming on the Norwegian and Barents Seas ecosystem using a time-dynamic food-web model
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Jacob W. Bentley, Natalia Serpetti, Johanna Jacomina Heymans Climate change in the Norwegian and Barents (NorBar) Seas is expected to generate major alterations to the marine food-web and its associated uses. However, our current capacity to quantify the potential ecological impact of physical change is hindered by a lack of fundamental knowledge regarding the forces and trophic interactions which have driven historic ecosystem dynamics. Here we used a historic (1950) food web model (Ecopath...
Boom and bust carbon-nitrogen dynamics during reforestation
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Anthony J. Parolari, Megan L. Mobley, Allan R. Bacon, Gabriel G. Katul, Daniel deB. Richter, Amilcare Porporato Legacies of historical land use strongly shape contemporary ecosystem dynamics. In old-field secondary forests, tree growth embodies a legacy of soil changes affected by previous cultivation. Three patterns of biomass accumulation during reforestation have been hypothesized previously, including monotonic to steady state, non-monotonic with a single peak then decay to steady...
An individual-based model for simulating the ecosystem dynamics of Jiaozhou Bay, China
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Lei Xing, Chongliang Zhang, Yong Chen, Yunne-Jai Shin, Philippe Verley, Haiqing Yu, Yiping Ren The Object-oriented Simulator of Marine ecoSystem Exploitation (OSMOSE) is one of the end-to-end models developed for ecosystem dynamic simulation and management strategy evaluation (MSE) in support of ecosystem-based fishery management (EBFM). However, the implementation of such integrated models has been limited due to lack of data, and their performance in advising fisheries management has...
An adaptable agent-based model for guiding multi-species Pacific salmon fisheries management within a SES framework
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Martin Cenek, Maxwell Franklin Informing fishery management decisions using coupled socio-ecological systems (CSES) models requires model construction that captures the systems interactions with high precision. Ecological uncertainty in fishery models is easily reduced using existing scientific literature, but social drivers are often poorly defined or understood. The lack of knowledge about fishermen behavior results in inaccurate models of questionable utility for fishery managers. We designed...
Seasonal succession of microalgal blooms from diatoms to dinoflagellates in the East China Sea: A numerical simulation study
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Zheng-Xi Zhou, Ren-Cheng Yu, Ming-Jiang Zhou The sea area adjacent to the Changjiang River estuary is the most notable region for harmful algal blooms (HABs) of dinoflagellates in China. Large-scale blooms of dinoflagellates (ig. Prorocentrum donghaiense and Karenia mikimotoi) started to appear in this region at the beginning of the 21st century, and the mechanisms for the occurrence of dinoflagellate blooms have become an intriguing issue since then. In previous studies, an apparent succession...

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