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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology

ScienceDirect Publication: Ecological Modelling
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Accounting for multiple stressors influencing living marine resources in a complex estuarine ecosystem using an Atlantis model
10. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 10 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 365 Author(s): Thomas F. Ihde, Howard M. Townsend Many external stressors influence marine and coastal ecosystems. Understanding effects of these stressors is important for managers concerned with living marine resources (LMR). Historically, analytical methods for understanding these effects have been limited to a relative few stressors being modelled. Recent work has shown that multiple stressors may commonly have non-additive or cumulative effects, so accounting for the interactions of such stressors on LMR...
Validation approaches of an expert-based Bayesian Belief Network in Northern Ghana, West Africa
10. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 10 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 365 Author(s): Janina Kleemann, Enrico Celio, Christine Fürst Model validation is a precondition for credibility and acceptance of a model. However, it appears that there is no scientific standard for validation of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs). In this paper, we present a novel combination of BBN validation approaches. A set of qualitative and quantitative validation approaches for the BBN structure, the Conditional Probability Tables and the BBN output is presented and discussed. The validation approaches...
Carbon footprints of urban transition: Tracking circular economy promotions in Guiyang, China
10. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 10 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 365 Author(s): Kai Fang, Liang Dong, Jingzheng Ren, Qifeng Zhang, Ling Han, Huizhen Fu Promoting urban transition is critical, particularly for China’s rapid urbanization. Circular economy strategy is widely recognized as an effective way to achieve a low-carbon transition of cities through improved waste recycling and industrial symbiosis. However, the evidence of low-carbon benefit is less reported. While the carbon footprint (CFP) represents a mature tool responding to climate change concerns...
Sex ratio estimates for species with temperature-dependent sex determination differ according to the proxy used
10. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 10 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 365 Author(s): Mariana M.P.B. Fuentes, Jonathan Monsinjon, Milagros Lopez, Paulo Lara, Alexsandro Santos, Maria A.G. dei Marcovaldi, Marc Girondot Knowledge of the sex ratio of a population is crucial to understand their structure and dynamics. For species, such as marine turtles, with temperature-dependent sex determination, this knowledge provides a baseline in advance of climate change. Determining the primary sex ratio for marine turtle populations is challenging since offspring lack sexually...
Simulating the effects of management practices on cropland soil organic carbon changes in the Temperate Prairies Ecoregion of the United States from 1980 to 2012
10. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 10 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 365 Author(s): Zhengpeng Li, Shuguang Liu, Zhengxi Tan, Terry L. Sohl, Yiping Wu Understanding the effects of management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) is important for designing effective policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture. In the Midwest United States, management practices in the croplands have been improved to increase crop production and reduce SOC loss since the 1980s. Many studies of SOC dynamics in croplands have been performed to understand the effects of...
Constraining the organic matter decay parameters in the CBM-CFS3 using Canadian National Forest Inventory data and a Bayesian inversion technique
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): Oleksandra Hararuk, Cindy Shaw, Werner A. Kurz Forests are an important component of the global carbon (C) cycle: they can capture and retain large amounts of C annually, depending on stand characteristics, climate, and disturbance regimes. With climate and disturbance regimes shifting, it is important to be able to accurately represent the corresponding changes in forest C dynamics with well-calibrated models. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) is a widely used...
Understanding hybridization and competition processes between hare species: Implications for conservation and management on the basis of a mathematical model
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): Valentina La Morgia, Ezio Venturino Hybridization and introgression frequently occur in animal communities, both in nature or caused by human actions. In the genus Lepus (Mammals, Lagomorphs) genetic mixing has been widely documented and it probably affected the population dynamics of species, particularly during climatic oscillations. We thus propose and investigate a mathematical model, with the aim to describe and predict the outcome of interspecific interactions in a three-population system...
Generation of extensible ecosystem models from a network structure and from locally executable programs
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): M. Varga, B. Csukas Analysis and planning of the Water/Food/Energy Nexus must be extended with the Ecosystem related interactions. Considering this, present work studies the further development and implementation of a methodology that has already been tried for the modelling and simulation of other processes within the Nexus. This methodology aims to support the unified and integrated dynamic modelling of multidisciplinary process networks, instead of interfacing amongst various field-specific...
An optimization of artificial neural network model for predicting chlorophyll dynamics
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): Wenchong Tian, Zhenliang Liao, Jin Zhang As one of the factors to represent some species of algae, chlorophyll dynamics model has been regarded as one of the early-warning proactive approaches to prevent or mitigate the occurrence of some algal blooms. To decrease the cost of aquatic environmental in-situ monitoring and increase the accuracy of bloom forecasting, a traditional artificial neural network (ANN) based chlorophyll dynamics prediction model had been optimized. This optimization...
Understanding changes in a Tropical Delta: A multi-method narrative of landuse/landcover change in the Niger Delta
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): Ayansina Ayanlade, Michael T. Howard Increasing demand for land resources by a rapidly growing population, with fast urbanization and industrialization, has resulted in landuse changes all over the world. This study evaluates landuse models used in literature to explain environmental change against the drivers of landuse change, using Niger Delta of Nigeria as a case study. The remote sensing and social survey data were used to examine spatiotemporal change in landuse in the Delta. The landuse...
The importance of dynamic mercury water column concentrations on body burdens in a planktivorous fish: A bioenergetic and mercury mass balance perspective
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): Rosemary W.H. Carroll, John J. Warwick Bioenergetic algorithms and mercury (Hg) mass balance approaches are combined into a single modeling framework (BioHg) to investigate sensitivity of methylmercury (MeHg) levels in Sacramento blackfish (Orthodon microlepidotus), a planktivorous cyprinid, as a function of dissolved water column concentrations of methylmercury (DMeHg). Boundary condition DMeHg are defined using observed Carson River contributions to Lahontan Reservoir, Nevada (USA). Influxes of...
The power of hybrid modelling: An example from aquatic ecosystems
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): Tido Strauss, Faten Gabsi, Monika Hammers-Wirtz, Pernille Thorbek, Thomas G. Preuss Planktonic communities in ponds and lakes show a high annual dynamic controlled by biotic interactions, nutrients and weather. In recent years, there has been an increase in demand for realistic and accurate lake models to improve ecological management of water bodies and to answer ecotoxicological questions in aquatic risk assessment. Most existing aquatic models are either ecosystem models aimed at...
Pareto-efficient biological pest control enable high efficacy at small costs
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): Niklas L.P. Lundström, Hong Zhang, Åke Brännström Biological pest control is increasingly used in agriculture as an alternative to traditional chemical pest control. In many cases, this involves a one-off or periodic release of naturally occurring and/or genetically modified enemies such as predators, parasitoids, or pathogens. As the interaction between these enemies and the pest is complex and the production of natural enemies potentially expensive, it is not surprising that both the...
Tracing the inter-regional coal flows and environmental impacts in Jing-Jin-Ji region
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): Gengyuan Liu, Marco Casazza, Xin Tian, Yan Zhang, Yan Hao, Lixiao Zhang, Sai Liang, Biagio F. Giannetti Coal, which plays a critical role in sustaining society development in Jing-Jin-Ji region (China), has become a controversial issue and has aroused extensive attention due to its impications with both climate change and human health. Based on the model of inter-regional transportation in Jing-Jin-Ji, we propose a Regional Coal Industry Chain Balance Table to define the full coal...
Bayesian semi-individual based model with approximate Bayesian computation for parameters calibration: Modelling Crown-of-Thorns populations on the Great Barrier Reef
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): C.C.-M. Chen, C.C. Drovandi, J.M. Keith, K. Anthony, M.J. Caley, K.L. Mengersen Outbreaks of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS), Acanthaster planci, are a major cause of coral decline on the Great Barrier Reef, second only to cyclones. Although various models have been developed in the past to assist management decision making, most of these models were cohort-based deterministic descriptions with little inclusion of parameter and individual uncertainties, or they were structured around a...
A bridge between continuous and discrete-time bioeconomic models: Seasonality in fisheries
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): Sturla Kvamsdal, José M. Maroto, Manuel Morán, Leif K. Sandal We develop a discretization method to construct a discrete finite-time bioeconomic model, corresponding to bioeconomic models with continuous-time growth function, but allowing the analysis of seasonality in fisheries. The discretization method consists of three steps: first, we estimate a proper growth function for the continuous-time model with the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Second, we use the Runge-Kutta method to discretize the...
Inside Front Cover - Editorial Board Page
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363
Configurational changes of patchy landscapes dynamics
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Vincent Bonhomme, Mathieu Castets, Thomas Ibanez, Hubert Géraux, Christelle Hély, Cédric Gaucherel This paper introduces dynamic configurational changes for patchy mosaics, parameterizable dilation and/or erosion processes of units in a vectorial landscape. Patchy-based models are rare although this conceptual framework could yield insights to the functioning and dynamics of agricultural and natural landscapes. Compared to common raster-based models, they are more parsimonious and...
A neutral model for the simulation of linear networks in territories
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): F. Vinatier, M. Chauvet A landscape matrix is the support of biotic and abiotic flows, and in that sense, requires increased interest from ecological modellers. This matrix is partly composed of linear elements, such as roads and field borders, that delimit land uses and are the result of socio-economic drivers. The geometrical properties of these elements could affect flows of water bodies, fauna, and flora. A large amount of research on landscape matrix simulation has been conducted using...
Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Marcus W. Beck, John C. Lehrter, Lisa L. Lowe, Brandon M. Jarvis Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables were responsive to changes in parameters that influenced planktonic growth rates and less sensitive to physical or chemical parameters. Variation in...

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