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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology

ScienceDirect Publication: Ecological Modelling
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Sensitivity of WOFOST-based modelling solutions to crop parameters under climate change
24. Januar 2018
Publication date: 24 January 2018 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 368 Author(s): Carlo Gilardelli, Roberto Confalonieri, Giovanni Alessandro Cappelli, Gianni Bellocchi The formalization of novel equations explicitly modelling the impact of extreme weather events into the crop model WOFOST (EMS: existing modelling solution; MMS: modified modelling solution) is proposed as a way to reduce the uncertainty in estimations of crop yield. A sensitivity analysis (SA) was performed to assess the effect of changing parameters values on the yield simulated by the model (both EMS and...
Inside Front Cover - Editorial Board Page
24. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 24 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 366
A Bayesian model of fisheries discards with flexible structure and priors defined by experts
24. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 24 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 366 Author(s): Eduardo Eiji Maeda, Samu Mäntyniemi, Smaragda Despoti, Claudia Musumeci, Vassiliki Vassilopoulou, Konstantinos I. Stergiou, Marianna Giannoulaki, Alessandro Ligas, Sakari Kuikka Minimizing the probability of discards is an important step in mitigating environmental impacts of fishing activities and maximizing economic gains from fish stocks. Although several discard models have been recently developed, current approaches are still unable to robustly adjust to different circumstances...
Enhancing of accuracy assessment for forest above-ground biomass estimates obtained from remote sensing via hypothesis testing and overfitting evaluation
24. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 24 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 366 Author(s): R. Valbuena, A. Hernando, J.A. Manzanera, E.B. Görgens, D.R.A. Almeida, F. Mauro, A. García-Abril, D.A. Coomes The evaluation of accuracy is essential for assuring the reliability of ecological models. Usually, the accuracy of above-ground biomass (AGB) predictions obtained from remote sensing is assessed by the mean differences (MD), the root mean squared differences (RMSD), and the coefficient of determination (R 2) between observed and predicted values. In this article we propose...
Algal bloom prediction of the lower Han River, Korea using the EFDC hydrodynamic and water quality model
24. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 24 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 366 Author(s): Jaeyoung Kim, Tongeun Lee, Dongil Seo The lower part of the Han River, which flows through Seoul, Korea, experienced excessive toxic cyanobacterial growth in 2015. Modeling of algal bloom occurrence patterns in the lower part of this river was performed using the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) to understand algal dynamics and thus better develop management alternatives. For a 71km long river section, 1175 horizontal 2-D grid elements were developed. This grid system was determined...
Unsuccessful dispersal affects life history characteristics of natal populations: The role of dispersal related variation in vital rates
24. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 24 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 366 Author(s): Jacques A. Deere, Tim Coulson, Sarah Cubaynes, Isabel M. Smallegange Individuals that disperse from one habitat to another has consequences for individual fitness, population dynamics and gene flow. The fitness benefits accrued in the new habitat are traded off against costs associated with dispersal. Most studies focus on costs at settlement and effects on settlement populations; the influence of dispersal to natal populations is assessed by monitoring change in numbers due to emigration...
Non-equilibrium plant metapopulation dynamics challenge the concept of ancient/recent forest species
24. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 24 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 366 Author(s): Etienne Lalechère, Franck Jabot, Frédéric Archaux, Guillaume Deffuant Previous analyses of the regional distribution of forest plants have revealed that some species have a biased distribution towards either ancient or recent forest patches. It has been therefore proposed to classify forest plant species according to their affinity for ancient or recent patches. In this contribution, we aimed at providing a dynamical perspective on this static concept of ancient/recent forest species. We...
The evaluation for the impact of land use change on habitat quality: A joint contribution of cellular automata scenario simulation and habitat quality assessment model
24. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 24 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 366 Author(s): Jianhua He, Junlong Huang, Chun Li China has experienced the most serious habitat degradation. Even though increasing attentions have been brought to this issue, we still lack the understanding of the impact of land use change on habitats. This study proposed an integrated framework with cellular automata (CA) scenario simulation and the “Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Trade-offs” (InVEST) model to evaluate how different landscape dynamics could exert influences on...
Accounting for multiple stressors influencing living marine resources in a complex estuarine ecosystem using an Atlantis model
10. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 10 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 365 Author(s): Thomas F. Ihde, Howard M. Townsend Many external stressors influence marine and coastal ecosystems. Understanding effects of these stressors is important for managers concerned with living marine resources (LMR). Historically, analytical methods for understanding these effects have been limited to a relative few stressors being modelled. Recent work has shown that multiple stressors may commonly have non-additive or cumulative effects, so accounting for the interactions of such stressors on LMR...
Validation approaches of an expert-based Bayesian Belief Network in Northern Ghana, West Africa
10. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 10 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 365 Author(s): Janina Kleemann, Enrico Celio, Christine Fürst Model validation is a precondition for credibility and acceptance of a model. However, it appears that there is no scientific standard for validation of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs). In this paper, we present a novel combination of BBN validation approaches. A set of qualitative and quantitative validation approaches for the BBN structure, the Conditional Probability Tables and the BBN output is presented and discussed. The validation approaches...
Carbon footprints of urban transition: Tracking circular economy promotions in Guiyang, China
10. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 10 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 365 Author(s): Kai Fang, Liang Dong, Jingzheng Ren, Qifeng Zhang, Ling Han, Huizhen Fu Promoting urban transition is critical, particularly for China’s rapid urbanization. Circular economy strategy is widely recognized as an effective way to achieve a low-carbon transition of cities through improved waste recycling and industrial symbiosis. However, the evidence of low-carbon benefit is less reported. While the carbon footprint (CFP) represents a mature tool responding to climate change concerns...
Sex ratio estimates for species with temperature-dependent sex determination differ according to the proxy used
10. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 10 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 365 Author(s): Mariana M.P.B. Fuentes, Jonathan Monsinjon, Milagros Lopez, Paulo Lara, Alexsandro Santos, Maria A.G. dei Marcovaldi, Marc Girondot Knowledge of the sex ratio of a population is crucial to understand their structure and dynamics. For species, such as marine turtles, with temperature-dependent sex determination, this knowledge provides a baseline in advance of climate change. Determining the primary sex ratio for marine turtle populations is challenging since offspring lack sexually...
Simulating the effects of management practices on cropland soil organic carbon changes in the Temperate Prairies Ecoregion of the United States from 1980 to 2012
10. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 10 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 365 Author(s): Zhengpeng Li, Shuguang Liu, Zhengxi Tan, Terry L. Sohl, Yiping Wu Understanding the effects of management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) is important for designing effective policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture. In the Midwest United States, management practices in the croplands have been improved to increase crop production and reduce SOC loss since the 1980s. Many studies of SOC dynamics in croplands have been performed to understand the effects of...
A dynamical systems framework for crop models: Toward optimal fertilization and irrigation strategies under climatic variability
10. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 10 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 365 Author(s): Norman Pelak, Roberto Revelli, Amilcare Porporato Crop models are widely used for the modeling and prediction of crop yields, as decision support tools, and to develop research questions. Though typically constructed as a set of dynamical equations, crop models are not often analyzed from a specifically dynamical systems point of view, despite its potential to elucidate the roles of feedbacks and internal and external forcings on system stability and the optimization of control protocols (e.g...
Do spatially homogenising and heterogenising processes affect transitions between alternative stable states?
10. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 10 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 365 Author(s): Thomas A. Groen, Claudius A.D.M. Van de Vijver, Frank Van Langevelde Large-scale sudden transitions in ecosystems are expected as result of changing global climate or land use. Current theory predicts such sudden transitions especially to occur in spatially homogeneous ecosystems, whereas transitions in spatially heterogeneous systems will be more gradual. The spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems is determined as result of opposing spatial processes that are either increasing or decreasing...
Estimating the landscape distribution of eggs by Helicoverpa spp., with implications for Bt resistance management
10. Dezember 2017
Publication date: 10 December 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 365 Author(s): H.R. Parry, C.A. Paull, M.P. Zalucki, A.R. Ives, A. Hulthen, N.A. Schellhorn Transgenic crops expressing insecticidal toxins of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) have been deployed in agricultural landscapes around the globe. While the key strategy to delay resistance is the mandatory planting of a non-Bt refuge crop that is preferred by the target pest, the efficacy of this resistance management strategy across different landscape contexts over time is rarely considered. Here, we develop an...
Inside Front Cover - Editorial Board Page
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364
Constraining the organic matter decay parameters in the CBM-CFS3 using Canadian National Forest Inventory data and a Bayesian inversion technique
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): Oleksandra Hararuk, Cindy Shaw, Werner A. Kurz Forests are an important component of the global carbon (C) cycle: they can capture and retain large amounts of C annually, depending on stand characteristics, climate, and disturbance regimes. With climate and disturbance regimes shifting, it is important to be able to accurately represent the corresponding changes in forest C dynamics with well-calibrated models. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) is a widely used...
Understanding hybridization and competition processes between hare species: Implications for conservation and management on the basis of a mathematical model
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): Valentina La Morgia, Ezio Venturino Hybridization and introgression frequently occur in animal communities, both in nature or caused by human actions. In the genus Lepus (Mammals, Lagomorphs) genetic mixing has been widely documented and it probably affected the population dynamics of species, particularly during climatic oscillations. We thus propose and investigate a mathematical model, with the aim to describe and predict the outcome of interspecific interactions in a three-population system...
Generation of extensible ecosystem models from a network structure and from locally executable programs
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): M. Varga, B. Csukas Analysis and planning of the Water/Food/Energy Nexus must be extended with the Ecosystem related interactions. Considering this, present work studies the further development and implementation of a methodology that has already been tried for the modelling and simulation of other processes within the Nexus. This methodology aims to support the unified and integrated dynamic modelling of multidisciplinary process networks, instead of interfacing amongst various field-specific...

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