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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology

Ecological Modelling
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A new temporal–spatial dynamics method of simulating land-use change
24. April 2017
Publication date: 24 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 350 Author(s): Dongya Liu, Xinqi Zheng, Chunxiao Zhang, Hongbin Wang The integration of a system dynamics (SD) model, a cellular automata (CA) model, and a Geographic Information System (GIS) is an important topic in the temporal and spatial simulation of land-use changes. Based on many previous studies, the temporal–spatial dynamics method (TSDM) has been proposed as a research framework that removes the limitations of using loosely coupled SD–CA–GIS. In this study, TSDM was successfully implemented in...
Simulating ungulate herbivory across forest landscapes: A browsing extension for LANDIS-II
24. April 2017
Publication date: 24 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 350 Author(s): Nathan R. De Jager, Patrick J. Drohan, Brian M. Miranda, Brian R. Sturtevant, Susan L. Stout, Alejandro A. Royo, Eric J. Gustafson, Mark C. Romanski Browsing ungulates alter forest productivity and vegetation succession through selective foraging on species that often dominate early succession. However, the long-term and large-scale effects of browsing on forest succession are not possible to project without the use of simulation models. To explore the effects of ungulates on succession...
Spatial simulation: A spatial perspective on individual-based ecology—a review
24. April 2017
Publication date: 24 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 350 Author(s): Gudrun Wallentin Spatial Simulation is a spatially explicit, bottom-up modelling approach that includes individual-based models and cellular automata. While spatial heterogeneity and individual variation have been considered as noise in the past, this is exactly what has become the centre of interest of the individual-based paradigm in ecology. According to Individual-based Ecology, the interaction and behaviour of individual organisms leads to the emergence of macro-level patterns on the system scale...
The effects of global dimming on the wheat crop grown in the Yangtze Basin of China simulated by SUCROS_LL, a process-based model
24. April 2017
Publication date: 24 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 350 Author(s): Yunqian Gu, Gang Li, Yutong Sun, Weihong Luo, Xue Liu, Wei Zhang, Chunjie Qi, Yang Zhao, Kailei Tang, Yan Zhang, Liping Shao, Yan Xiong, Chuanfei Si, Chunjiang Zhao Low light spell, one of the major causes of reduction in global radiation (global dimming), has become a new challenge to crop production. For assessing impacts of low light spells on wheat yield, we proposed a low light index (LLI) and quantified the effects of low light spell conditions occurring at different...
An improved Biome-BGC model for estimating net primary productivity of alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
24. April 2017
Publication date: 24 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 350 Author(s): Qingling Sun, Baolin Li, Tao Zhang, Yecheng Yuan, Xizhang Gao, Jinsong Ge, Fei Li, Zhijun Zhang The process-based Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles) model is widely used to simulate the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen within an ecosystem. However, the Biome-BGC model neglects the existence of underground persistent portion of perennial grasses as well as functional differences between the fast-cycling and persistent roots, which are assumed to negatively impact the accurate...
An individual-based model of forest volatile organic compound emissions—UVAFME-VOC v1.0
24. April 2017
Publication date: 24 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 350 Author(s): Bin Wang, Herman H. Shugart, Manuel T. Lerdau Forests produce and emit abundant non-methane volatile hydrocarbon species (VOCs) influencing the atmosphere chemistry and climate. Over a half century of research has produced significant understandings of the biochemistry and eco-physiology of biogenic VOCs. However, VOCs production is highly species-specific, and the impact of changes in species composition and abundance on VOCs emissions is unobservable in the time scales usually seen in field...
Quantifying the bias in density estimated from distance sampling and camera trapping of unmarked individuals
24. April 2017
Publication date: 24 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 350 Author(s): Alienor L.M. Chauvenet, Robin M.A. Gill, Graham C. Smith, Alastair I. Ward, Giovanna Massei Population size estimates are an integral part of any species conservation or management project. They are often used to evaluate the impact of management intervention and can be critical for making decisions for future management. Distance sampling and camera trapping of unmarked populations are commonly used for such a task as they can yield rapid and relatively inexpensive estimates of density. Yet...
The effects of invasive pests and pathogens on strategies for forest diversification
24. April 2017
Publication date: 24 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 350 Author(s): Morag F. Macpherson, Adam Kleczkowski, John R. Healey, Christopher P. Quine, Nick Hanley Diversification of the tree species composition of production forests is a frequently advocated strategy to increase resilience to pests and pathogens; however, there is a lack of a general framework to analyse the impact of economic and biological conditions on the optimal planting strategy in the presence of tree disease. To meet this need we use a novel bioeconomic model to quantitatively assess the...
Comparison of two ontogenetic growth equations for animals and plants
10. April 2017
Publication date: 10 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 349 Author(s): Pei-Jian Shi, Mei-Ling Fan, David A. Ratkowsky, Jian-Guo Huang, Hsin-I Wu, Lei Chen, Shui-Yuan Fang, Chun-Xia Zhang Ontogenetic growth reflects the changes of biomass, height (or body length) of a biological organism as a function of time. Many growth equations have been built but few can accurately predict the ending time of growth. Here we are attempting to provide two growth equations for predicting the time when growth terminates. Meanwhile, these models are also expected to apply to...
SPRAT: A spatially-explicit marine ecosystem model based on population balance equations
10. April 2017
Publication date: 10 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 349 Author(s): Arne N. Johanson, Andreas Oschlies, Wilhelm Hasselbring, Boris Worm To successfully manage marine fisheries using an ecosystem-based approach, long-term predictions of fish stock development considering changing environmental conditions are necessary. Such predictions can be provided by end-to-end ecosystem models, which couple existing physical and biogeochemical ocean models with newly developed spatially-explicit fish stock models. Typically, individual-based models (IBMs) and models based on...
Carry-over effects: population abundance, ecological shifts, and the (dis-)appearance of oscillations
10. April 2017
Publication date: 10 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 349 Author(s): Alfonso Ruiz-Herrera Empirical evidence suggests that carry-over effects (COEs) can have a strong influence on the time evolution of populations. Here, COEs are defined as any event or process in one season that affects individual performance in a non-lethal manner during the following seasons. Our results have the potential to explain previously reported experimental results and to provide new biological phenomena. The population response to COEs is typically considerably more complicated than...
Relationship between plants and soil resource patterns on forest land at different scales using a new theoretical model
10. April 2017
Publication date: 10 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 349 Author(s): Jian Hou, Huiqing Wang, Zongshan Li Recently, plant root or crown size has been used in researching spatial relationships between plants and soil resources in most studies, and different methods have been used to address this relationship. However, few studies have reviewed the quantification of the relationship between plants and soil resources, and few studies have explained the roles of different plant functional groups on the soil resource distribution. In this paper, a method called integration...
Ecological vulnerability assessment based on multi-sources data and SD model in Yinma River Basin, China
10. April 2017
Publication date: 10 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 349 Author(s): Feng Zhang, Xingpeng Liu, Jiquan Zhang, Rina Wu, Qiyun Ma, Yanan Chen Ecological vulnerability assessment is a key approach to adaptation to and mitigation of environmental degradation. To assess the ecological vulnerability of Yinma River Basin in cold mountain region of China, the ecological vulnerability index (EVI) model was established based on the integrated system dynamic (SD) model and driving force-pressure-state-impact-response-management (DPSIRM) framework. Using multi-sources data...
Novel catch projection model for a commercial groundfish catch shares fishery
10. April 2017
Publication date: 10 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 349 Author(s): Sean E. Matson, Ian G. Taylor, Vladlena V. Gertseva, Martin W. Dorn Fishery catch projection models play a central role in fishery management, yet are underrepresented in the literature. A wide range of statistical approaches are employed for the task, including multiple regression models, autoregressive methods, different classes of generalized linear models, mixed model approaches and many others. However, the applicability of these statistical approaches can be limited in specific cases of...
Modeling age-related stand respiration changes in forest stands under the self-thinning law
10. April 2017
Publication date: 10 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 349 Author(s): Kazuharu Ogawa There are three different age-related changes in stand respiration (woody + foliage respiration) in an even-aged pure forest stand after canopy closure: (A) monotonous increase (Kira and Shidei, 1967; Odum, 1969), (B) constancy (Oohata and Shidei, 1974; Ogawa et al., 2010), and (C) monotonous decrease (Ryan et al., 1997; Drake et al., 2011). These contrasting views were based on observational data rather than on theoretical arguments. The present study was performed to model...
How overfishing a large piscine mesopredator explains growth in Ross Sea penguin populations: A framework to better understand impacts of a controversial fishery
10. April 2017
Publication date: 10 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 349 Author(s): David G. Ainley, Elizabeth L. Crockett, Joseph T. Eastman, William R. Fraser, Nadav Nur, Kristin O’Brien, Leo A. Salas, Donald B. Siniff We herein review the modeling approach of Pinkerton et al. (2016, Ecol. Modelling), who tested the hypothesis that fishery depletion of large, neutrally buoyant Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) was implicated in the recent increase in the southern Ross Sea population of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae). Toothfish are a trophic competitor...
Should topographic metrics be considered when predicting species density of birds on a large geographical scale? A case of Random Forest approach
10. April 2017
Publication date: 10 April 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 349 Author(s): Jakub Z. Kosicki Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) is a group of statistical tools that describe species distribution in environmental gradients in order to create their predictive distribution. However, due to the complexity of factors that influence the occurrence or density of species these methods’ effectiveness is still debatable. That is why we decided to explore how topographic metrics, such as altitude, slope, roughness and aspect, would affect the density of farmland (Icterine warbler...
The development of China-DNDC and review of its applications for sustaining Chinese agriculture
Publication date: 24 March 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 348 Author(s): Hu Li, Ligang Wang, Jianzheng Li, Maofang Gao, Jing Zhang, Jianfeng Zhang, Jianjun Qiu, Jia Deng, Changsheng Li, Steve Frolking During the past century Chinese agriculture has been struggling to produce more food to support the ever growing population, while dealing with the increased degradation of air, water and soil quality in the agricultural regions. Lessons learnt from the long-term efforts indicated that scientifically sound methodology could play a crucial role in...
Predicting the impact of Lake Biomanipulation based on food-web modeling—Lake Kinneret as a case study
Publication date: 24 March 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 348 Author(s): E. Ofir, J.J. Heymans, J. Shapiro, M. Goren, E. Spanier, G. Gal Biomanipulation is a tool decision makers use to achieve desirable management goals. In lakes, one of the most common goals is the improvement of water quality, an objective that can be achieved mainly by reducing the amount of phytoplankton in the water. Although it is a very clear goal that is achievable by using actions that affect the phytoplankton biomass, experience shows that primary biomanipulation goals are rarely...
Index decomposition analysis of urban crop water footprint
Publication date: 24 March 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 348 Author(s): X. Zhao, M.R. Tillotson, Y.W. Liu, W. Guo, A.H. Yang, Y.F. Li Rapid urbanization has resulted in often unplanned increases in population, and food demand in cities. Historically, hinterlands to these cities have acted as breadbaskets producing food to the urban residents. Accordingly, a large amount of available freshwater has been needed to support these croplands. However, the rapid expansion of cities in developing countries has significantly changed both the croplands around cities and...

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