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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology

ScienceDirect Publication: Ecological Modelling
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Simulated water quality effects of alternate grazing management practices at the ranch and watershed scales
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Jong-Yoon Park, Srinivasulu Ale, W. Richard Teague Inappropriate grazing management with high stocking rates can result in significantly higher levels of runoff, sediment and nutrient losses to surface water resources. An assessment of water quality effects of various grazing management practices enables the selection of appropriate management practices. The overall objective of this study was to assess the impacts of alternate grazing management practices including the heavy continuous (HC...
Using ecosystem modeling to evaluate trade-offs in coastal management: Effects of large-scale river diversions on fish and fisheries
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Kim de Mutsert, Kristy Lewis, Scott Milroy, Joe Buszowski, Jeroen Steenbeek A coupled ecosystem modeling approach was used to evaluate how select combinations of large-scale river diversions in the lower Mississippi River Deltaic Plain may affect the distribution, biomass, and landings of fish and shellfish over decades relative to a future without action. These river diversions are controlled openings in the riverbank of the Mississippi River designed to reintroduce sediment, water, and...
A road map for developing and applying object-oriented bayesian networks to “WICKED” problems
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Nicole Benjamin-Fink, Brian K. Reilly Wildlife managers, conservation-based authorities and NGOS are often tasked to provide management guidelines concerning “wicked” problems and Ecosystem Services (ESS) with scarce data and limited resources. More often than not, this dilemma is further intensified by competing objectives and the need for economic profitability. A range of quantitative and qualitative models are often applied to model ecosystem services. However, lack of quantifiable data...
The effect of reproductive occurrences and human descriptors on invasive pet distribution modelling: Trachemys scripta elegans in the Iberian Peninsula
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Filipe Banha, Mafalda Gama, Pedro Manuel Anastácio Pet release is important for the introduction of invasive species but propagule pressure from this pathway is higher in areas with intense human presence. In fact, potential invaders are frequently released into areas with sub-optimal environmental conditions, and are not able to reproduce or establish viable populations. SDMs are mainly focused on determining species environmental suitability and in the case of invasive species modelling these...
Pesticides and bees: Ecological-economic modelling of bee populations on farmland
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Adam Kleczkowski, Ciaran Ellis, Nick Hanley, David Goulson Production of insect-pollinated crops typically relies on both pesticide use and pollination, leading to a potential conflict between these two inputs. In this paper we combine ecological modelling with economic analysis to investigate the effects of pesticide use on wild and commercial bees, whilst allowing farmers to partly offset the negative effects of pesticides on bee populations by creating more on-farm bee habitat. Farmers...
A stochastic movement model reproduces patterns of site fidelity and long-distance dispersal in a population of Fowler’s toads (Anaxyrus fowleri)
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Philippe Marchand, Morgan Boenke, David M. Green Although amphibians typically exhibit high site fidelity and low dispersal, they do undertake rare, long-distance movements. The factors influencing these events remain poorly understood, partly because amphibian spring movements tend to radiate from breeding sites and the animals are often difficult to locate at other times of the year. In this study, we investigate whether these movement patterns can be reproduced by a parsimonious model where...
Dynamic response of East Asian Greater White-fronted Geese to changes of environment during migration: Use of multi-temporal species distribution model
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Xueyan Li, Yali Si, Luyan Ji, Peng Gong Understanding how migratory species select habitats is essential for applied ecology and biological conservation. Although migratory species move across a wide range of environments during migration, their dynamic response to environments has rarely been considered. Taking advantage of the fine spatial-temporal resolution of satellite tracking data, we studied habitat selection of East Asian greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) along their...
Multi-model approach to predict phytoplankton biomass and composition dynamics in a eutrophic shallow lake governed by extreme meteorological events
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Carolina Crisci, Rafael Terra, Juan Pablo Pacheco, Badih Ghattas, Mario Bidegain, Guillermo Goyenola, Juan José Lagomarsino, Gustavo Méndez, Néstor Mazzeo A multi-model approach to predict phytoplankton biomass and composition was performed in a eutrophic Uruguayan shallow lake which is the second drinking water source of the country. We combined statistical (spectral analysis and Machine learning techniques) and physically based models to generate, for the first time in this...
Investigating the potential impacts of ocean warming on the Norwegian and Barents Seas ecosystem using a time-dynamic food-web model
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Jacob W. Bentley, Natalia Serpetti, Johanna Jacomina Heymans Climate change in the Norwegian and Barents (NorBar) Seas is expected to generate major alterations to the marine food-web and its associated uses. However, our current capacity to quantify the potential ecological impact of physical change is hindered by a lack of fundamental knowledge regarding the forces and trophic interactions which have driven historic ecosystem dynamics. Here we used a historic (1950) food web model (Ecopath...
Boom and bust carbon-nitrogen dynamics during reforestation
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Anthony J. Parolari, Megan L. Mobley, Allan R. Bacon, Gabriel G. Katul, Daniel deB. Richter, Amilcare Porporato Legacies of historical land use strongly shape contemporary ecosystem dynamics. In old-field secondary forests, tree growth embodies a legacy of soil changes affected by previous cultivation. Three patterns of biomass accumulation during reforestation have been hypothesized previously, including monotonic to steady state, non-monotonic with a single peak then decay to steady...
An individual-based model for simulating the ecosystem dynamics of Jiaozhou Bay, China
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Lei Xing, Chongliang Zhang, Yong Chen, Yunne-Jai Shin, Philippe Verley, Haiqing Yu, Yiping Ren The Object-oriented Simulator of Marine ecoSystem Exploitation (OSMOSE) is one of the end-to-end models developed for ecosystem dynamic simulation and management strategy evaluation (MSE) in support of ecosystem-based fishery management (EBFM). However, the implementation of such integrated models has been limited due to lack of data, and their performance in advising fisheries management has...
An adaptable agent-based model for guiding multi-species Pacific salmon fisheries management within a SES framework
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Martin Cenek, Maxwell Franklin Informing fishery management decisions using coupled socio-ecological systems (CSES) models requires model construction that captures the systems interactions with high precision. Ecological uncertainty in fishery models is easily reduced using existing scientific literature, but social drivers are often poorly defined or understood. The lack of knowledge about fishermen behavior results in inaccurate models of questionable utility for fishery managers. We designed...
Seasonal succession of microalgal blooms from diatoms to dinoflagellates in the East China Sea: A numerical simulation study
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Zheng-Xi Zhou, Ren-Cheng Yu, Ming-Jiang Zhou The sea area adjacent to the Changjiang River estuary is the most notable region for harmful algal blooms (HABs) of dinoflagellates in China. Large-scale blooms of dinoflagellates (ig. Prorocentrum donghaiense and Karenia mikimotoi) started to appear in this region at the beginning of the 21st century, and the mechanisms for the occurrence of dinoflagellate blooms have become an intriguing issue since then. In previous studies, an apparent succession...
Environmental effects on growth, reproduction, and life-history traits of loggerhead turtles
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Nina Marn, Marko Jusup, Tarzan Legović, S.A.L.M. Kooijman, Tin Klanjšček Understanding the relationship between the environmental conditions and life-history traits (such as growth, reproduction, and size at specific life stages) is important for understanding the population dynamics of a species and for constructing adaptable, relevant, and efficient conservation measures. For the endangered loggerhead turtle, characterizing effects of environmental conditions on the life-history traits...
A multi-species modelling approach to select appropriate submerged macrophyte species for ecological restoration in Gonghu Bay, Lake Taihu, China
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Hailong Gao, Qianyun Shi, Xin Qian In this study, we built a submerged macrophyte model (GBAEDM) that could simulate several macrophyte species simultaneously. The model was calibrated and validated using pilot-scale experimental data, with satisfactory results. The coefficient of determination (R2 ) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) values were 0.86 and 0.03 for TP, 0.71 and 0.38 for TN, 0.93 and 6.78 for Chl a, and 0.99 and 27.61 for submerged macrophyte biomass. The GBAEDM was then used to...
The analytical solutions of the harvesting Verhulst’s evolution equation
24. September 2017
Publication date: 24 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 360 Author(s): Paulius Miškinis, Vaida Vasiliauskienė The Verhulst differential equation is one of the evolutionary equations most widely known in ecology. Its analytical solution is applied to explain the growth dynamics of populations with limited resources. The situation when the harvesting or “influence” function, i.e. the additional term proportional to the population concentration, is controlled by the time-dependent coefficient is analyzed. Several examples when this equation has the analytical...
Modeling food web effects of low sardine and anchovy abundance in the California Current
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Isaac C. Kaplan, Laura E. Koehn, Emma E. Hodgson, Kristin N. Marshall, Timothy E. Essington Populations of sardine, anchovy, and other forage species can fluctuate to low levels due to climate variability and fishing, leading to indirect effects on marine food webs. In the context of recent declines of sardine (Sardinops sagax) and anchovy (Engraulis mordax) in the California Current, we apply an end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model that is spatially explicit, includes trophic interactions...
The impact of primary and export production on the formation of the secondary nitrite maximum: A model study
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Aike Beckmann, Inga Hense The so-called secondary nitrite maximum (SNM) is a pronounced subsurface feature in many oxygen deficient zones of the ocean. A nitrite layer of up to several hundred meters thickness indicates high microbial activity and nitrogen loss from the system. To study the effects of primary and export production on the SNM, we have developed a one-dimensional ecosystem model for oxygen deficient zones. Our model couples the marine nitrogen and oxygen cycles with physical water...
The role of bivalves in the Balgzand: First steps on an integrated modelling approach
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): S. Saraiva, L. Fernandes, J. van der Meer, R. Neves, S.A.L.M. Kooijman The present paper describes a process oriented modelling tool that integrates physical, biogeochemical, ecological and physiological factors governing bivalve populated marine ecosystems. This modelling tool is the result of the coupling between an individual-based population model for bivalves (based on the Dynamic Energy Budgets theory, DEB) and a hydrodynamic/biogeochemical model (MOHID Water Modelling System). The...
Establishing nearshore marine secondary productivity baseline estimates for multiple habitats in coastal Mississippi and Alabama using AQUATOX 3.1 NME for use in the Deepwater Horizon natural resource...
10. September 2017
Publication date: 10 September 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 359 Author(s): Eldon C. Blancher, Richard A. Park, Jonathan S. Clough, Scott P. Milroy, W. Monty Graham, Chet F. Rakocinski, J. Read Hendon, Jerry D. Wiggert, Robert Leaf The establishment of a defensible baseline for ecosystem productivity is important in Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) and other assessment studies so that an estimate of the ecosystem injury can be established. In order to establish the overall NRDA baseline productivity for the Deepwater Horizon Oil release (DWH), the...

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