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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology

ScienceDirect Publication: Ecological Modelling
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Integrating remote sensing, GIS and dynamic models for landscape-level simulation of forest insect disturbance
24. Juni 2017
Publication date: 24 June 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 354 Author(s): Lu Liang, Xuecao Li, Yanbo Huang, Yuchu Qin, Huabing Huang Cellular automata (CA) is a powerful tool for modeling the evolution of macroscopic scale phenomena as it couples time, space, and variables together while remaining in a simplified form. However, such application has remained challenging in forest insect epidemics due to the highly dynamic nature of insect behavior. Recent advances in temporal trajectory-based image analysis offer an alternative way to obtain high-frequency model...
Effects of species prevalence on the performance of predictive models
24. Juni 2017
Publication date: 24 June 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 354 Author(s): Ratha Sor, Young-Seuk Park, Pieter Boets, Peter L.M. Goethals, Sovan Lek Predictive models are useful to support decision making, management and conservation planning. However, the performance of models varies across techniques and is affected by several factors including species prevalence (i.e. the occurrence rate of each species in the total samples). Here, we analysed and compared the performance of four common modelling techniques based on the species prevalence. The occurrence of...
Intertidal seagrass models: Insights towards the development and implementation of a desiccation module
24. Juni 2017
Publication date: 24 June 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 354 Author(s): Ana Azevedo, Ana Isabel Lillebø, João Lencart e Silva, João Miguel Dias One of the main limitations found in the numerical models available to simulate seagrass dynamics is the absence of processes that differentiate intertidal from subtidal seagrass meadows, namely the desiccation undergone by the leaves when emerged. The main objective of this work is therefore to contribute towards the mechanistic development and testing of a desiccation module to be later coupled with a numerical seagrass...
Predicting shifts in large herbivore distributions under climate change and management using a spatially-explicit ecosystem model
24. Mai 2017
Publication date: 24 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 352 Author(s): Timothy J. Fullman, Erin L. Bunting, Gregory A. Kiker, Jane Southworth Wildlife managers use a variety of interventions to alter species distributions but it is uncertain how effective these techniques will be under shifting climate. There is growing recognition of the importance of including climate change scenarios into management planning and actions, but this is lacking in many systems. The spatially-explicit ecosystem model, SAVANNA, was used to predict shifts in large herbivore distribution...
Can individual variation in phenotypic plasticity enhance population viability?
24. Mai 2017
Publication date: 24 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 352 Author(s): Adriana A. Maldonado-Chaparro, Dwight W. Read, Daniel T. Blumstein In response to climatic and other sources of environmental variation, individuals within a population may adjust their behavioral, morphological or physiological responses to varying environmental conditions through phenotypic plasticity. In seasonal environments, time constraints related to seasonality, as well as variation in climatic factors, may affect body mass growth rates. To cope with the consequences of a harsh period...
Modeling birch seed supply and seedling establishment during forest regeneration
24. Mai 2017
Publication date: 24 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 352 Author(s): Emma Holmström, Matts Karlsson, Urban Nilsson The seed ecology and regeneration management of birch species in Fennoscandia has been quite thoroughly investigated through decades of forestry research. Nonetheless, there are few methods for precise predictions of spontaneous natural regeneration. In this study a first framework of a model is presented that combines possible seed supply with seed emergence and seedling survival based on GIS data and the results of past experiments. The birch seed...
Predicting the impacts of Mississippi River diversions and sea-level rise on spatial patterns of eastern oyster growth rate and production
24. Mai 2017
Publication date: 24 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 352 Author(s): Hongqing Wang, Qin Chen, Megan K. La Peyre, Kelin Hu, Jerome F. La Peyre There remains much debate regarding the perceived tradeoffs of using freshwater and sediment diversions for coastal restoration in terms of balancing the need for wetland restoration versus preserving eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) production. Further complicating the issue, climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR) and land subsidence are also expected to affect estuarine water quality. In this study, we developed...
Biodiversity trajectories and the time needed to achieve no net loss through averted-loss biodiversity offsets
24. Mai 2017
Publication date: 24 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 352 Author(s): Falko T. Buschke Biodiversity offsetting is a conservation tool that compensates for the residual loss of biodiversity at one geographic locality with an equivalent gain elsewhere. The goal is generally to ensure no net loss of biodiversity after development. One path to no net loss is preventing the imminent loss of biodiversity at the offset location through increased conservation; a strategy known as averted-loss. No net loss is most feasible in these instances when (a) the initial loss of biodiversity...
MOSES – A tree growth simulator for modelling stand response in Central Europe
24. Mai 2017
Publication date: 24 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 352 Author(s): Christopher Thurnher, Mario Klopf, Hubert Hasenauer Moses (MOdelling Stand rESponse) is a distance and potential-dependent single-tree growth simulator. It consists of a diameter and height increment model, a dynamic crown model and models that calculate mortality and regeneration. It was originally calibrated for spruce, beech and pine forests in Austria and has been recalibrated several times throughout the years. In this study, we recalibrated and validated the increment models and the mortality...
Aggregation of incomplete food web data may help to suggest sampling strategies
24. Mai 2017
Publication date: 24 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 352 Author(s): Katalin Patonai, Ferenc Jordán Aggregation of data and incomplete sampling are two notoriuos problems of food web research. We suggest to look at them in parallel since their effects are interdependent. Different aggregation methods are not equally sensitive to missing data and they lead to different biases in describing food web structure. In this paper, we construct a low-quality food web of Lake Balaton (based only on high-quality literature), aggregate it in several ways, compare the different...
Model sensitivity to spatial resolution and explicit light representation for simulation of boreal forests in complex terrain
24. Mai 2017
Publication date: 24 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 352 Author(s): Ksenia Brazhnik, H.H. Shugart A model is a simplification of our understanding of reality, but how much simplification is too much? We assessed model sensitivity for a new spatially-explicit individual-based gap model (IBM) SIBBORK to determine how spatial resolution (i.e., plot size) and explicit representation of light and space affect the simulated vegetation characteristics (e.g., structure and composition). The 3-dimensional (3-D) representation of light is the most computationally-expensive part...
Temperature-dependent regulation of induction into secondary dormancy of Polygonum aviculare L. seeds: A quantitative analysis
24. Mai 2017
Publication date: 24 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 352 Author(s): Cristian Malavert, Diego Batlla, Roberto L. Benech-Arnold In seeds of many summer annuals low temperatures under moist conditions provoke dormancy release while high temperatures induce secondary dormancy. Seed dormancy level establishes the range of temperatures under which germination is possible. The range of temperatures permissive for seed germination is determined by two threshold limit temperatures: Lower limit temperature (T l) and High limit temperature (T h). Numerous studies have been...
Predicting the effects of manual crayfish removal on California newt persistence in Santa Monica Mountain streams
24. Mai 2017
Publication date: 24 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 352 Author(s): William R. Milligan, Marjorie T. Jones, Lee B. Kats, Timothy A. Lucas, Courtney L. Davis We construct a hybrid, stage-structured mathematical model to study whether trapping of the invasive predatory crayfish Procambarus clarkii can prevent local extinctions of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern native to Santa Monica Mountain streams. Specifically, we numerically and analytically determine under what conditions trapping can drive the crayfish population size to...
Prelim (ii or iii) Title Page
10. Mai 2017
Publication date: 10 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 351
Modelling and analyzing the water and carbon dynamics of Mediterranean macchia by the use of ground and remote sensing data
10. Mai 2017
Publication date: 10 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 351 Author(s): F. Maselli, F.P. Vaccari, M. Chiesi, S. Romanelli, L.P. D’Acqui Mediterranean ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes which have occurred in the last decades. Evaluating the ecosystem response to these changes is therefore a top priority, particularly concerning water and carbon dynamics. The Pianosa Island is a well known test site where numerous environmental surveys have been performed to fully characterize the most typical vegetation type, Mediterranean macchia...
Modeling bumble bee population dynamics with delay differential equations
10. Mai 2017
Publication date: 10 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 351 Author(s): H.T. Banks, J.E. Banks, Riccardo Bommarco, A.N. Laubmeier, N.J. Myers, Maj Rundlöf, Kristen Tillman Bumble bees are ubiquitous creatures and crucial pollinators to a vast assortment of crops worldwide. Bumble bee populations have been decreasing in recent decades, with demise of flower resources and pesticide exposure being two of several suggested pressures causing declines. Many empirical investigations have been performed on bumble bees and their natural history is well documented, but...
Process-based simulation of prairie growth
10. Mai 2017
Publication date: 10 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 351 Author(s): Cody J. Zilverberg, Jimmy Williams, Curtis Jones, Keith Harmoney, Jay Angerer, Loretta J. Metz, William Fox When field research is cost- or time-prohibitive, models can inform decision-makers regarding the impact of agricultural policy on production and the environment, but process-based models that simulate animal-plant-soil interaction and ecosystem services in grazing lands are rare. In the U.S.A., APEX (Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender) is a model commonly used to inform policy...
An agent-based bioenergetics model for predicting impacts of environmental change on a top marine predator, the Weddell seal
10. Mai 2017
Publication date: 10 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 351 Author(s): Roxanne S. Beltran, J. Ward Testa, Jennifer M. Burns One of the crucial scientific challenges of this century is characterizing the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change. Bioenergetics models can provide a theoretical construct for addressing specific physiological and ecological hypotheses about how individuals may respond; however, many models fail to link energy deficiencies with reproductive consequences, and thus cannot be used to predict population-level impacts. Here, we present an...
Ecological network analysis of energy metabolism in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) urban agglomeration
10. Mai 2017
Publication date: 10 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 351 Author(s): Yan Zhang, Yanxian Li, Hongmei Zheng China’s strategy for synergetic development of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration is providing a great opportunity for this region. The development of urban agglomeration has promoted energy transmission and transference within the urban system. Therefore, identifying the mechanisms of energy flow processes within the agglomeration is important for integrated and sustainable regional development. Using the concept of “urban metabolism”, we constructed an...
Influence of agricultural activities in the structure and metabolic functionality of paramo soil samples in Colombia studied using a metagenomics analysis in dynamic state
10. Mai 2017
Publication date: 10 May 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 351 Author(s): Astrid Catalina Alvarez-Yela, María Camila Alvarez-Silva, Silvia Restrepo, Johana Husserl, María Mercedes Zambrano, Giovanna Danies, Jorge M. Gómez, Andrés Fernando González Barrios Soil is one of the most variable and complex habitats on earth where microbial communities and their metabolic capabilities are greatly affected by agricultural activities. Nevertheless, the impact of these activities has been poorly studied and more detailed analyses are required in order to understand...

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