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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology

ScienceDirect Publication: Ecological Modelling
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Constraining the organic matter decay parameters in the CBM-CFS3 using Canadian National Forest Inventory data and a Bayesian inversion technique
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): Oleksandra Hararuk, Cindy Shaw, Werner A. Kurz Forests are an important component of the global carbon (C) cycle: they can capture and retain large amounts of C annually, depending on stand characteristics, climate, and disturbance regimes. With climate and disturbance regimes shifting, it is important to be able to accurately represent the corresponding changes in forest C dynamics with well-calibrated models. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) is a widely used...
Understanding hybridization and competition processes between hare species: Implications for conservation and management on the basis of a mathematical model
24. November 2017
Publication date: 24 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 364 Author(s): Valentina La Morgia, Ezio Venturino Hybridization and introgression frequently occur in animal communities, both in nature or caused by human actions. In the genus Lepus (Mammals, Lagomorphs) genetic mixing has been widely documented and it probably affected the population dynamics of species, particularly during climatic oscillations. We thus propose and investigate a mathematical model, with the aim to describe and predict the outcome of interspecific interactions in a three-population system...
Configurational changes of patchy landscapes dynamics
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Vincent Bonhomme, Mathieu Castets, Thomas Ibanez, Hubert Géraux, Christelle Hély, Cédric Gaucherel This paper introduces dynamic configurational changes for patchy mosaics, parameterizable dilation and/or erosion processes of units in a vectorial landscape. Patchy-based models are rare although this conceptual framework could yield insights to the functioning and dynamics of agricultural and natural landscapes. Compared to common raster-based models, they are more parsimonious and...
A neutral model for the simulation of linear networks in territories
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): F. Vinatier, M. Chauvet A landscape matrix is the support of biotic and abiotic flows, and in that sense, requires increased interest from ecological modellers. This matrix is partly composed of linear elements, such as roads and field borders, that delimit land uses and are the result of socio-economic drivers. The geometrical properties of these elements could affect flows of water bodies, fauna, and flora. A large amount of research on landscape matrix simulation has been conducted using...
Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Marcus W. Beck, John C. Lehrter, Lisa L. Lowe, Brandon M. Jarvis Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables were responsive to changes in parameters that influenced planktonic growth rates and less sensitive to physical or chemical parameters. Variation in...
Spatially explicit modelling of agricultural dynamics in semi-arid environments
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Assaf Chen This paper describes a software package called Spatially Explicit Agricultural Dynamics (SEAD), which investigates agricultural spatial and temporal land-use changes. SEAD is an agent-based model whose rules are set to mimic the human decision making processes regarding agricultural land expansion. Model calibration is based on remotely sensed data. Detection of agricultural lands was executed using intra- and inter-annual Landsat images, with an overall accuracy of 86%. An analysis...
Minimizing effects of methodological decisions on interpretation and prediction in species distribution studies: An example with background selection
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Catherine S. Jarnevich, Marian Talbert, Jeffery Morisette, Cameron Aldridge, Cynthia S. Brown, Sunil Kumar, Daniel Manier, Colin Talbert, Tracy Holcombe Evaluating the conditions where a species can persist is an important question in ecology both to understand tolerances of organisms and to predict distributions across landscapes. Presence data combined with background or pseudo-absence locations are commonly used with species distribution modeling to develop these relationships...
Why the population of the northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) of Tyuleniy Island does not recover following the harvest ban: Analysis of 56 years of observation data
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Oksana L. Zhdanova, Аlexey Е. Kuzin, Elena I. Skaletskaya, Еfim Ya. Frisman Following many years of managed harvest, the population size of Northern fur seal on Tyuleniy Island appeared to be depressed. In order to preserve the population, the harvest was first significantly limited, and then banned altogether. However, the birth rates have never recovered. We perform the estimation and analysis of survival rates of different groups of males in the population with the goal of elucidating...
Wind effects on the spring phytoplankton dynamics in the middle reach of the Chesapeake Bay
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Long Jiang, Meng Xia The spring phytoplankton bloom, bridging nutrient loading and summer hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay especially in its middle reach, is highly sensitive to physical forcing. In addition to riverine input, winds could be a noticeable driver of estuarine phytoplankton variability, affecting its water quality and ecosystem health. In this study, wind impacts on the spring bloom were investigated utilizing the 29-year (1985–2013) monitoring data and an existing FVCOM-ICM estuarine...
Modelling methane formation in sediments of tropical lakes focusing on syntrophic acetate oxidation: Dynamic and static carbon isotope equations
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Vasily Vavilin, Sergey Rytov, Ralf Conrad A dynamic model including isotope variables has proved to be an effective tool for evaluating the relative importance of the processes that are taking place in parallel and compete for the same substrate. We present a mathematical description of cellulose conversion into methane and carbon dioxide in the anoxic sediments of three floodplain tropical lakes that were investigated before. Parallel processes of acetoclastic methanogenesis and syntrophic...
A coffee agroecosystem model: III. Parasitoids of the coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei)
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Daniel Rodríguez, José Ricardo Cure, Andrew Paul Gutierrez, José Miguel Cotes Parasitoids native to tropical Africa have been released in the Americas for the biological control of the coffee berry borer (CBB), but their establishment has been checkered. A tritrophic distributed maturation time model for the coffee plant – CBB – three parasitoids (Phymastichus coffea, Cephalonomia stephanoderis, Prorops nasuta) system was proposed by Gutierrez et al. (1998). Based on this pioneering...
Fragment dispersal and plant-induced dieback explain irregular ring-shaped pattern formation in a clonal submerged macrophyte
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Maria P. Vilas, Matthew P. Adams, Carolyn E. Oldham, Clelia L. Marti, Matthew R. Hipsey Submerged macrophytes can colonize shallow lakes via several reproductive mechanisms, and can in turn substantially alter these environments by modifying the thermal structure and dissolved oxygen levels within these lakes. Although multiple mechanisms of submerged macrophyte expansion have been described, the relative contribution of each of these in shallow lake environments has been largely overlooked...
Which factors and processes drive the spatio-temporal dynamics of brackish marshes?—Insights from development and parameterisation of a mechanistic vegetation model
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Jana Carus, Maike Heuner, Maike Paul, Boris Schröder Tidal marsh vegetation offers important ecosystem services. However, in many estuaries, extensive embankments, artificial bank protection, river dredging and agriculture threaten tidal marshes. In this study we analysed the processes underlying the spatio-temporal patterns of tidal marsh vegetation in the Elbe estuary and quantified the influence of specific habitat factors by developing and applying the process-based dynamic...
Multi-site calibration and validation of a net ecosystem carbon exchange model for croplands
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): A. Klosterhalfen, M. Herbst, L. Weihermüller, A. Graf, M. Schmidt, A. Stadler, K. Schneider, J.-A. Subke, J.A. Huisman, H. Vereecken Croplands play an important role in the carbon budget of many regions. However, the estimation of their carbon balance remains difficult due to diversity and complexity of the processes involved. We report the coupling of a one-dimensional soil water, heat, and CO2 flux model (SOILCO2), a pool concept of soil carbon turnover (RothC), and a crop...
Building emergy analysis of Manhattan: Density parameters for high-density and high-rise developments
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Jae Min Lee, William W. Braham To better understand how cities work, this study performs emergy (spelled with an “m”) synthesis of buildings on Manhattan Island. Conventional emergy studies have focused on much larger unit of analysis; however, architects, urban designers, and policymakers are operating on a smaller scale of building, block, neighborhood, and district. This study contributes to overcoming the scale and resolution mismatch between the macro- and micro-levels. Overall emergy for...
Physiological responses of fish under environmental stress and extension of growth (curve) models
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Biman Chakraborty, Amiya Ranjan Bhowmick, Joydev Chattopadhyay, Sabyasachi Bhattacharya The physiological responses of fish to the environmental stress have been broadly classified into three categories, namely, primary, secondary and tertiary. We have proposed two extended growth curve models considering the physiological responses of fish due to various stressors. We illustrate the proposed models based on a fish growth data where tree shading effect on the water and the habitat alteration...
Aggregation may or may not eliminate reproductive uncertainty
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Dmitrii O. Logofet In matrix population models, there cannot be any ‘reproductive uncertainty’ when the life cycle graph contains only one reproductive stage. Otherwise, it is logical to expect that aggregating all the reproductive stages into a single one would exclude the very basis of uncertainty. However, can the aggregation change principally the model characteristics such as the dominant eigenvalue λ 1 of the projection matrix, thus signifying the aggregation failure? I demonstrate that...
A Bayesian geostatistical approach to modeling global distributions of Lygodium microphyllum under projected climate warming
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): John M. Humphreys, James B. Elsner, Thomas H. Jagger, Stephanie Pau Species distribution modeling aimed at forecasting the spread of invasive species under projected global warming offers land managers an important tool for assessing future ecological risk and for prioritizing management actions. The current study applies Bayesian inference and newly available geostatistical tools to forecast global range expansion for the ecosystem altering invasive climbing fern Lygodium microphyllum. The...
Integrating the effects of salinity on the physiology of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, in the northern Gulf of Mexico through a Dynamic Energy Budget model
10. November 2017
Publication date: 10 November 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 363 Author(s): Romain Lavaud, Megan K. La Peyre, Sandra M. Casas, Cédric Bacher, Jérôme F. La Peyre We present a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, which enables the inclusion of salinity as a third environmental variable, on top of the standard foodr and temperature variables. Salinity changes have various effects on the physiology of oysters, potentially altering filtration and respiration rates, and ultimately impacting growth, reproduction and mortality...
Inside Front Cover - Editorial Board Page
24. Oktober 2017
Publication date: 24 October 2017 Source:Ecological Modelling, Volume 362

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