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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology
ScienceDirect Publication: Ecological Modelling
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Incorporating biotic relationships improves species distribution models: Modeling the temporal influence of competition in conspecific nesting birds
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Publication date: 15 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 408Author(s): Rachel R. Fern, Michael L. Morrison, Hsiao-Hsuan Wang, William E. Grant, Tyler A. CampbellAbstractAimComplex, biotic interactions are notably excluded from species distribution models (SDMs) as they are often difficult to quantify and accommodate in a traditional modeling framework, especially those with a temporal component. The territorial nature of breeding Cactus wren is well-documented and typically involves nest usurping (i.e., destruction) of conspecifics. Due to their similar nesting ecology...
Modelling approach for crafting environmental regulations under deep uncertainty: Whale watching in Ojo de liebre, Mexico
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Publication date: 15 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 408Author(s): Emilio Rodríguez-Izquierdo, Yosune Miquelajauregui, Pablo Padilla, Luis A Bojórquez-TapiaAbstractPolicy-making to protect threatened species implies dealing with uncertainty and ignorance. Conservation management of the Eastern gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) population through the regulation of whale watching in the lagoon Ojo de Liebre, Mexico, is a useful example of policy-making challenged by lack of scientific knowledge regarding the negative long-term effects of whale watching. We present a...
Impacts and uncertainties of climate/CO2 change on net primary productivity in Xinjiang, China (2000–2014): A modelling approach
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Publication date: 15 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 408Author(s): Xia Fang, Zhi Chen, Xulin Guo, Shihua Zhu, Tong Liu, Chaofan Li, Biao HeAbstractDryland in Xinjiang, China has been threatened in recent decades by rapid climate change. However, due to large uncertainties in spatial climate datasets, the impacts of climate change and rising CO2 on net primary productivity (NPP) in Xinjiang have remained unclear. These uncertainties in climate will inevitably lead to uncertainties in model estimated NPP in Xinjiang. The uncertainties can be assessed by running an Arid...
Modelling damage occurrence by snow and wind in forest ecosystems
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Publication date: 15 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 408Author(s): Olalla Díaz-Yáñez, Blas Mola-Yudego, José Ramón González-OlabarriaAbstractSnow and wind damages are one of the major abiotic disturbances playing a major role in forest ecosystems and affecting both stand dynamics and forest management decisions. This study analyses the occurrence of wind and snow damage on Norwegian forests, based on data from four consecutive forest inventories (1995–2014). The methodological approach is based on boosted regression trees, a machine learning method aiming to...
Modeling the frugivory of a plant with inconstant productivity and solid interaction with relictual vertebrate biota
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Publication date: 15 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 408Author(s): Juliano André Bogoni, Ana Beatriz Navarro, Maurício Eduardo Graipel, Nivaldo PeroniAbstractUniversal features of ecological processes have mathematical properties that are naturally nonlinear and intricate, hitherto oftentimes approximated only by mathematical equations. We aimed to evaluate via mathematical modeling different scenarios of productivity and frugivory of Acca sellowiana (Feijoa) by vertebrates in the highlands of the subtropical Atlantic Forest. In doing so, based on an empirical baseline...
Modeling vaccination strategies to control white-nose syndrome in little brown bat colonies
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Publication date: 1 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 407Author(s): Eva Cornwell, David C. Elzinga, Shelby Stowe, Alex CapaldiAbstractSince 2006, the North American bat population has been in rapid decline due to white-nose syndrome (WNS), which is caused by an invasive fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans). The little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus) is the species most affected by this emerging disease. We consider how best to prevent local extinctions of this species using mathematical models. In 2017, development began on a new vaccine for WNS; we analyze the effects of...
CO2 fertilization plays a minor role in long-term carbon accumulation patterns in temperate pine forests in the southwestern Pyrenees
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Publication date: 1 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 407Author(s): Yueh-Hsin Lo, Juan A. Blanco, Ester González de Andrés, J. Bosco Imbert, Federico J. CastilloAbstractIsolating the long-term fertilization effect of CO2 from other climate- and site-related effects on tree growth has been proven a challenging task. To isolate long-term effects of [CO2] on water use efficiency at ecosystem level, we used the FORECAST Climate forest model, calibrated for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests in the southwestern Pyrenees, growing at a Mediterranean montane site and at a...
Trait-based modelling in ecology: A review of two decades of research
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Publication date: 1 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 407Author(s): L. Zakharova, K.M. Meyer, M. SeifanAbstractTrait-based approaches are an alternative to species-based approaches for functionally linking individual organisms with community structure and dynamics. In the trait-based approach, rather than focusing on the species identity of the organism, the focus is on the organism traits, which represent their physiological, morphological, or life-history characteristics. Although used in ecological research for several decades, this approach only emerged in ecological...
Modelling long-term fisheries data to resolve the attraction versus production dilemma of artificial reefs
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Publication date: 1 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 407Author(s): Ruben H. Roa-Ureta, Miguel N. Santos, Francisco LeitãoAbstractThe main role of artificial reefs (ARs) is to enhance the productivity and sustainability of coastal fisheries by creating new fish biomass. From a modelling point of view, the creation of new fish biomass would be realized by a shift to a state of higher carrying capacity of the environment (K) for aquatic populations and communities. However, it has not been possible to demonstrate unequivocally rising K as a result of AR deployment because...
K-aggregated transformation of discrete distributions improves modeling count data with excess ones
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Publication date: 1 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 407Author(s): Can Zhou, Yan Jiao, Joan BrowderAbstractThe excess one pattern in count data has been documented in ecology but it has not been explicitly modeled or examined. In this study, we introduce a k-aggregated transformation of discrete distributions to better model count data with excess ones in a Bayesian generalized linear model framework and demonstrate its use with two groups of case studies (group 1: seabird bycatch in longline fisheries and Legionnaires disease incidence; group 2: survey abundance of...
Howard Odum’s “Self-organization, transformity and information”: Three decades of empirical evidence
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Publication date: 1 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 407Author(s): Biagio F. Giannetti, Maria De Fatima D.F.B. Marcilio, Luca Coscieme, Feni Agostinho, Gengyuan Liu, Cecilia M.V.B. AlmeidaAbstractThe Biosphere is self-organized into a hierarchy of energy transformations. More dilute forms of energy (e.g. solar energy) are concentrated in biological structures and through socioeconomic transformation processes forming energy outputs that are able to perform higher quality work. To assess the hierarchy level of different forms of energy in the Biosphere, over 30 years Howard...
Changes in streamflow and water temperature affect fish habitat in the Athabasca River basin in the context of climate change
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Publication date: 1 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 407Author(s): L.A. Morales-Marín, P. Rokaya, P.R. Sanyal, J. Sereda, K.E. LindenschmidtAbstractChanges to natural flow and air temperature in the context of climate change can have impacts on physiology, distribution and survival of fish. Of particular interest is the Athabasca River basin, a highly biologically productive basin that includes one of the largest boreal freshwater inland river deltas in the world and serves as habitat for many fish species. Earlier melt events, higher winter and spring flows and lower...
Individual-based modelling of black bear (Ursus americanus) foraging in Whistler, BC: Reducing human-bear interactions
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Publication date: 1 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 407Author(s): Jessa Marley, Joseph H. Salkeld, Tony Hamilton, Susan E. Senger, Rebecca C. Tyson, Lael ParrottAbstractHuman-black bear interactions have a long standing history involving extermination of bears, damage to human property, and, in some cases, injury or loss of human life. Much work has been done in the field of bear management to reduce the number of human-black bear interactions, including aversive conditioning, relocation, resource management, etc. However, determining which strategies are most effective...
Comparison of two maximum entropy models highlights the metabolic structure of metacommunities as a key determinant of local community assembly
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Publication date: 1 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 407Author(s): Jason Bertram, Erica A. Newman, Roderick C. DewarAbstractThe principle of Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) promises a novel approach for understanding community assembly. Despite reproducing a variety of observed species abundance patterns, MaxEnt models in ecology have been hampered by disparate model assumptions and interpretations. A recurring challenge is that MaxEnt predictions are highly sensitive to the level of detail used to describe the community being modeled, and there seems to be no reason to prefer...
Common ground between growth models of rival theories: a useful illustration for beginners
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Publication date: 1 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 407Author(s):
Quantifying source and sink habitats and pathways in spatially structured populations: A generalized modelling approach
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Publication date: 1 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 407Author(s): Christine Sample, Joanna A. Bieri, Benjamin Allen, Yulia Dementieva, Alyssa Carson, Connor Higgins, Sadie Piatt, Shirley Qiu, Summer Stafford, Brady J. Mattsson, Darius J. Semmens, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Jay E. DiffendorferAbstractThe ability to classify habitats and movement pathways as sources or sinks is an important part of the decision making process for the conservation of spatially structured populations. Diverse approaches have been used to quantify the importance of habitats and pathways in a...
Re-evaluating the ‘plankton paradox’ using an interlinked empirical data and a food web model
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Publication date: 1 September 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 407Author(s): Lin Wang, Ying Tang, Rui-Wu Wang, Xiao-Ya ShangAbstractSpecies coexistence in the plankton community, which is also known as the ‘plankton paradox’, has been extensively discussed in studies of the aquatic ecosystem. Theoretical work also proves that seasonal variation can produce population chaos, which can reduce species extinction. However, there is still a lack of empirical research to analyze how both species interactions and seasonal forcing affect both species coexistence and system stability in...
Erratum to “Bridging the gap between ecosystem service indicators and ecosystem accounting in Finland” [Ecol. Model. 377 (2018) 51–65]
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Publication date: Available online 18 June 2019Source: Ecological ModellingAuthor(s): Tin-Yu Lai, Jani Salminen, Jukka-Pekka Jäppinen, Saija Koljonen, Laura Mononen, Emmi Nieminen, Petteri Vihervaara, Soile Oinonen