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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology
ScienceDirect Publication: Ecological Modelling
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Fine-scale analysis of urban flooding reduction from green infrastructure: An ecosystem services approach for the management of water flows
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Publication date: 24 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 386Author(s): Denis Maragno, Mattias Gaglio, Martina Robbi, Federica Appiotti, Elisa Anna Fano, Elena GissiAbstractClimate change is expected to modify the timing and amount of precipitation in the future, increasing the demand for effective adaptation at the local scale, especially to mitigate the impacts of extreme events, expected to increase in frequency and magnitude. Green infrastructure (GI) can provide a crucial water regulating ecosystem service, helping communities to adapt to the increased stormwater runoff...
Effect of exotic cordgrass Spartina alterniflora on the eco-exergy based thermodynamic health of the macrobenthic faunal community in mangrove wetlands
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): Quan Chen, Qian Zhao, Pimao Chen, Hongfang LuAbstractThe health of natural ecosystems, including mangrove wetlands, is being severely challenged by biological invasions worldwide. For a holistic evaluation of ecosystem health, researchers have commonly measured the eco-exergy of the system in question. Mangrove wetlands depend on their macrobenthic fauna and are threatened by the exotic cordgrass Spartina alterniflora, particularly in South China. However, the effect of S. alterniflora on the health status...
Simple energy-budget model for yolk-feeding stages of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): Tjalling Jager, Raymond Nepstad, Bjørn Henrik Hansen, Julia FarkasAbstractAtlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is a commercially important species, and therefore, understanding the influence of environmental factors and anthropogenic stressors on its early life stages is of considerable relevance. In this contribution, we apply a simple and generic energy-budget framework (DEBkiss) to data for the yolk-feeding stages of cod. The model is capable of explaining the changes in yolk volume, dry weight, oxygen use and...
Optimality-based approach for computationally efficient modeling of phytoplankton growth, chlorophyll-to-carbon, and nitrogen-to-carbon ratios
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): Bingzhang Chen, S. Lan SmithAbstractTo increase the efficiency of computing phytoplankton growth rate (μ), chlorophyll-to-carbon (θ) and nitrogen-to-carbon ratios (QN) in three-dimensional ocean circulation models, it is preferable to directly calculate θ and QN from ambient environmental factors instead of treating them as independent tracers. Optimality-based modeling has emerged as a novel and efficient approach to fulfill this task. However, it is still unclear precisely how the response of...
How density-dependence and climate affect guanaco population dynamics
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): María Zubillaga, Oscar Skewes, Nicolás Soto, Jorge E. RabinovichAbstractThe guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of the two South American native wild camelid species, and despite its important ecological role and economic value conservationists are in a permanent conflict with sheep ranchers. Currently, management programs are being developed in Argentina and Chile to guarantee guanaco and grassland conservation. We developed a non-linear simulation, three stages-structured matrix model of guanaco population...
Modeling of soil phosphatase activity in land use ecosystems and topsoil layers in the Brazilian Cerrado
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): Marcos V.M. Leite, Lenka Bobuľská, Suéllen P. Espíndola, Maria R.C. Campos, Lucas C.B. Azevedo, Adão S. FerreiraAbstractSoil phosphatase is a biochemical indicator of soil quality, and its activity plays a key role in the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. Modeling the kinetic parameters of soil phosphatase is central to integrate ecological processes in tropical soils under different land use ecosystems. The goal of this study was to determine the kinetic parameters of soil acid phosphatase...
Spatiotemporally resolved ambient particulate matter concentration by fusing observational data and ensemble chemical transport model simulations
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): E. Chianese, A. Galletti, G. Giunta, T.C. Landi, L. Marcellino, R. Montella, A. RiccioAbstractIn this work, we describe and implement a data assimilation approach for PM10 pollution data in Northern Italy. This was done by combining the best available information from observations and chemical transport models. Specifically, by (1) incorporating PM10 surface daily concentrations and model results from the CAMS (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) ensemble; and (2) spreading the forecast corrections...
Quantifying the benefits of spatial fisheries management – An ecological-economic optimization approach
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): Rudi Voss, Martin F. Quaas, Jörn O. Schmidt, Max T. Stoeven, Tessa B. Francis, Phillip S. Levin, Derek R. Armitage, Jaclyn S. Cleary, R. Russ Jones, Lynn C. Lee, Daniel K. Okamoto, Jennifer J. Silver, Thomas F. Thornton, Sherri C. Dressel, Alec D. MacCall, André E. PuntAbstractImproving fisheries management is a key challenge in addressing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger) and support Goals 1 (No Poverty) and 14 (Life Below Water). However, sustaining the ocean’s living...
Groundwater recharge algorithm for forest management models
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): Fabian Schwaiger, Werner Poschenrieder, Thomas Rötzer, Peter Biber, Hans PretzschAbstractMultifunctionality is a critical objective in forest management planning. Water related ecosystem services are only sparsely implemented in Forest Management Models (FMM) although water scarcity is highly relevant. This study proposes an approach to integrate groundwater recharge into a FMM. The approach is based on knowledge transfer between two different forest growth models. For site-specific simulations on the...
Bayesian modeling of individual growth variability using back-calculation: Application to pink cusk-eel (Genypterus blacodes) off Chile
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, Freddy O. López Quintero, Rodrigo WiffAbstractThe von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) with random effects has been widely used to estimate growth parameters incorporating individual variability of length-at-age. Trajectories of individual growth can be inferred using either mark-recapture or back-calculation of length-at-age from growth marks in hard body parts such as otoliths. Modern statistical methods evaluate individual variation usually from mark-recapture data, and the...
A state-dependent model for assessing the population consequences of disturbance on income-breeding mammals
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): Elizabeth A. McHuron, Lisa K. Schwarz, Daniel P. Costa, Marc MangelAbstractHuman activities continue to expand in marine and terrestrial environments, leading to increased interactions with wildlife that can have negative impacts on population dynamics. Approaches for quantifying how these interactions translate to population-level effects are therefore crucial for effective management practices and balancing human-wildlife tradeoffs. We developed a method using state-dependent behavioral theory implemented...
Using species distribution models at local scale to guide the search of poorly known species: Review, methodological issues and future directions
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): Mauro Fois, Alba Cuena-Lombraña, Giuseppe Fenu, Gianluigi BacchettaAbstractAmong specific applications of species distribution models (SDMs), the use of SDMs probabilistic maps for guiding field surveys is increasingly applied. This approach is particularly used for poorly known and/or cryptic species in order to better assess their distribution. One of the most interesting aspects of these applications is that predictions could be clearly validated by real data, subsequently obtained in the field. Despite...
Intra-host interspecific larval parasitoid competition solved using modelling and bayesian statistics
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): Octavio A. Bruzzone, Guillermo A. Logarzo, María B. Aguirre, Eduardo G. VirlaAbstractIntraguild competition is a complex phenomenon that shapes parasitoid communities. When several species of parasitoids oviposit within the same individual host, a complex phenomenon of larval competitive interaction occurs. Within the same guild there is a specialization in competitive strategies, sometimes multiparasitism is avoided, but some species are facultative hyperparasitoids/predators of their competitors.As these...
Spatial arrangement of size-different patches determines population dynamics in linear riverine systems
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): Yang Shen, Zhichao Xu, Ivan Nijs, Jinbao LiaoAbstractDespite years of attention, the dynamics of species constrained to disperse within riverine systems are not well captured by existing population models. Here we develop a population model subject to local population dynamics and regional dispersal process in a closed linear riverine system, which consists of three size-different patches (lakes) arranged at different positions in the chain. Generally, two-way dispersal, including down- and upstream...
Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): L.D. Valdez, G.J. Sibona, C.A. CondatAbstractAedes aegypti is the main vector of multiple diseases, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. Due to modifications in weather patterns, its geographical range is continuously evolving. Temperature is a key factor for its expansion into regions with cool winters, but rainfall can also have a strong impact on the colonization of these regions, since larvae emerging after a rainfall are likely to die at temperatures below 10 °C. As climate change is expected to...
Effects of input capacity constraints on food quality and regulation mechanism design for food safety management
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): You-hua Chen, Sun-jun Huang, Ashok K. Mishra, X. Henry WangAbstractInput capacity constraints means a firm cannot make its output decision based on the first - order optimal condition of profit maximization because it does not have enough inputs. Input capacity constraints have a significant effect on production quality and firm competition, especially on food safety management. This paper tries to provide a new perspective for quality operation in supply chain management. It also designs a new mechanism...
Population persistence in the face of climate change and competition: A battle on two fronts
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): D. Scott RinnanAbstractMany species undergo significant shifts in population distribution in response to changes in climate. This response can introduce a species to new competition from invasive organisms, or influence the dynamics of an otherwise balanced ecosystem. How can a species ensure its own survival while dealing with both interspecific competition and the effects of climate change? We examine a two-species discrete-time, continuous-space population model to determine conditions for coexistence...
Prediction of suitable feeding habitat for fishes in a stream using physical habitat simulations
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): Seung Ki Kim, Sung-Uk ChoiAbstractThis study presented the suitable feeding habitat for target fish species using physical habitat simulations for both fishes and macroinvertebrates. The suitable feeding habitat is a novel concept for the fish habitat that guarantees a certain level of feeding condition as well as the suitability of the physical habitat. The study site is a 0.9 km long reach of the Gongneung-cheon Stream, which is a tributary of the Han-gang River in Korea. Three dominant fish species...
Partial exclusion of spawning Cyprinus carpio to improve coastal marsh habitat may come at the cost of increased carp population growth
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): Amanda Caskenette, Eva C. Enders, Doug Watkinson, Dale WrubleskiAbstractCommon Carp (Cyprinus carpio) feeding and spawning behaviours, when abundant, negatively impact shallow water habitats essential for marsh ecosystem functioning. A common coastal marsh restoration practice is to create barriers to carp movement into a marsh from connected lakes. These barriers often do not exclude all carp from a marsh, and the lower adult density and improved habitat may increase overall carp recruitment success. A...
Developing alternative forest spatial management plans when carbon and timber values are considered: A real case from northeastern China
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Publication date: 10 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 385Author(s): Lingbo Dong, Wei Lu, Zhaogang LiuAbstractForest ecosystems play an important role in mitigating global climate change, and this role has recently been further reinforced by the Paris Agreement. However, our knowledge with respect to the trade-offs between timber production and carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems is still seriously deficient. Therefore, the overall goal of this study is to quantitatively analyze the effects of a set of economic and ecological constraints on the joint production...