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Recent Scientific Papers

Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology
ScienceDirect Publication: Ecological Modelling
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Grazing and aridity reduce perennial grass abundance in semi-arid rangelands – Insights from a trait-based dynamic vegetation model
Publication date: 1 March 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 395Author(s): Mirjam Pfeiffer, Liam Langan, Anja Linstädter, Carola Martens, Camille Gaillard, Jan C. Ruppert, Steven I. Higgins, Edwin I. Mudongo, Simon ScheiterAbstractSemi-arid tropical rangelands substantially contribute to livelihoods of subsistence farmers, but are threatened by undesired vegetation shifts due to climate change and overgrazing. Grazing-induced shifts of the grass community composition are often associated with rangeland degradation. To identify sustainable management strategies, a process-based...
Applying a simplified energy-budget model to explore the effects of temperature and food availability on the life history of green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris)
Publication date: 1 March 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 395Author(s): Natnael T. Hamda, Benjamin Martin, Jamilynn B. Poletto, Dennis E. Cocherell, Nann A. Fangue, Joel Van Eenennaam, Ethan A. Mora, Eric DannerAbstractIn highly regulated systems, like large dammed rivers, conservation legislation requires that systems are managed, in part, to avoid adverse impacts on endangered species. However, multiple endangered species can occur in the same system, and management actions that benefit one species may be detrimental to another species. The current water management strategies in...
Incorporating temperature and precipitation extremes into process-based models of African lepidoptera changes the predicted distribution under climate change
Publication date: 24 February 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 394Author(s): Madeleine G. Barton, John S. Terblanche, Brent J. SinclairAbstractTerrestrial insects are responding to ongoing climate change. While these responses have been primarily linked to rising temperatures, insects are sensitive to desiccation, and the impacts of altered precipitation regimes remain relatively unexplored. Here, we develop a mechanistic model of survival and performance responses to both temperature and desiccation stress, focussing on Lepidoptera in Africa, where a general understanding of such...
Modeling impacts of landscape connectivity on dispersal movements of northern flying squirrels (Glaucomys sabrinus griseifrons)
Publication date: 24 February 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 394Author(s): Stephanie E. Trapp, Casey C. Day, Elizabeth A. Flaherty, Patrick A. Zollner, Winston P. SmithAbstractLandscape connectivity is a key component for successful dispersal of wildlife. Many approaches to quantify landscape connectivity utilize landscape characteristics and wildlife behavior in response to those characteristics, whereas other approaches focus on wildlife dispersal behavior. Combining landscape structure and wildlife behavior (e.g. movement, food acquisition, response to predation risk) provides...
Modelling leaf coloration dates over temperate China by considering effects of leafy season climate
Publication date: 24 February 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 394Author(s): Guohua Liu, Xiaoqiu Chen, Yongshuo Fu, Nicolas DelpierreAbstractCurrent process-based models of autumn phenophases are generally based on autumn temperature and/or photoperiod cues. The dependence of autumn phenology on environmental conditions occurring throughout the leafy season has been overlooked. In this study, we incorporated the effect of leafy season temperature and precipitation in process-based models with the aim to improve the modelling of autumn phenology. We tested the ability of three...
Derivation of species interactions strength in a plant community with game theory
Publication date: 24 February 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 394Author(s): Zhi-Quan Han, Tong Liu, Hua-Feng Liu, Xiao-Ran Hao, Wei Chen, Bai-Lian LiAbstractDerivation of species interactions function in a plant community and the quantified analysis of the effects of multi-species interactions poses a challenge because of the large number of interactions in a community. However, through the interaction with the local environment and resources as well as the adjustment of species richness and distribution frequency, the community will eventually reach the highest resources...
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions through the use of urease inhibitors: A farm level analysis
Publication date: 24 February 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 394Author(s): Domna Tzemi, James BreenAbstractIreland’s ambitious plan to expand primary agricultural production and its commitment to reduce its non-ETS GHG emissions by 20% compared with 2005 emission levels constitute a considerable challenge for Irish farmers. Nitrous oxide emissions produced as a result of the application of artificial fertiliser accounts for 16% of Ireland’s agricultural GHG emissions (Teagasc, 2017a). The use of urea combined with NBPT has the potential to reduce GHG emissions from...
Experimental design principles to choose the number of Monte Carlo replicates for stochastic ecological models
Publication date: 24 February 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 394Author(s): Maureen C. KennedyAbstractEcologists often rely on computer models as virtual laboratories to evaluate alternative theories, make predictions, perform scenario analysis, and to aid in decision-making. The application of ecological models can have real-world consequences that drive ecological theory development and science-based decision and policy-making, so it is imperative that the conclusions drawn from ecological models have a strong, credible quantitative basis. In particular it is important to...
From soil to bird community: A Partial Least Squares approach to investigate a natural wooded area surrounded by urban patchwork (Astroni crater, southern Italy)
Publication date: 24 February 2019Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 394Author(s): Michele Innangi, Rosario Balestrieri, Tiziana Danise, Francesco d’Alessandro, Antonietta FiorettoAbstractForests are among the most important land ecosystems both in term of their contribution to the global carbon cycle and for their prominence in hosting large biodiversity. Under a changing world, both in terms of land use and climate scenarios, it is pivotal to understand the matter and energy flows in complex ecosystems such as forests, in order to infer potential relationships at different levels...
Corrigendum: Corrigendum to “Assessing sources of uncertainty in length-based estimates of body growth in populations of fishes and macroinvertebrates with bootstrapped ELEFAN” [Ecol. Model. 393...
Publication date: Available online 17 January 2019Source: Ecological ModellingAuthor(s): R. Schwamborn, T.K. Mildenberger, M.H. Taylor
Modelling the effect of spatially variable soil properties on the distribution of weeds
Publication date: Available online 21 November 2018Source: Ecological ModellingAuthor(s): H. Metcalfe, A.E. Milne, K. Coleman, A.J. Murdoch, J. StorkeyAbstractThe patch spraying of weeds is an area of precision agriculture that has had limited uptake. This is in part due to the perceived risks associated with not controlling individual weeds. Nevertheless, the inherent patchiness of weeds makes them ideal targets for site-specific management. We propose using a mechanistic model to identify areas of a field vulnerable to invasion by weeds, allowing the creation of treatment maps that are...
When managers forage for pests: Implementing the functional response in pest management
Publication date: Available online 20 November 2018Source: Ecological ModellingAuthor(s): Melodie Kunegel-Lion, Devin W. Goodsman, Mark A. LewisAbstractIn this study, we explore how the functional response framework can be implemented in pest management. Here, managers take the role of predators foraging on pests and facing monetary costs for survey and control in a spatial domain where the pest distribution and control strategy do not have to be random. To investigate this framework quantitatively, we simulated various management processes on different pest spatial distributions using a...