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Recent Scientific Papers

Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology
ScienceDirect Publication: Ecological Modelling
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Assessing natural capital value in marine ecosystems through an environmental accounting model: A case study in Southern Italy
Publication date: 1 March 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 419Author(s): Elvira Buonocore, Luca Appolloni, Giovanni F. Russo, Pier Paolo FranzeseAbstractCoastal and marine natural capital stocks provide a bundle of ecosystem services vital to humans. The delivery of these benefits depends on the protection and sustainable management of natural capital through effective nature conservation strategies. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are recognized worldwide as important tools to protect biodiversity while ensuring the delivery of ecosystem services and promoting sustainable human...
A Bayesian network approach to refining ecological risk assessments: Mercury and the Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi)
Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): John F. Carriger, Mace G. BarronAbstractTraditionally hazard quotients (HQs) have been computed for ecological risk assessment, often without quantifying the underlying uncertainties in the risk estimate. We demonstrate a Bayesian network approach to quantitatively assess uncertainties in HQs using a retrospective case study of dietary mercury (Hg) risks to Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi). The Bayesian network was parameterized, using exposure data from a previous Monte Carlo-based assessment of Hg...
The role of spatial units in modelling freshwater fish distributions: Comparing a subcatchment and river network approach using MaxEnt
Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): Heiko Schmidt, Johannes Radinger, Daniel Teschlade, Stefan StollAbstractSpecies Distribution Models (SDM) are frequently used in ecological research, but the effects of model extent and granularity on model outcomes are rarely addressed. In freshwater SDMs, two different approaches are commonly used to define the granularity of the models, i.e. to subdivide entire river systems into appropriate spatial modelling units: river reaches on the actual river network or subcatchments. We built maximum entropy...
Modelling species presence–absence in the ecological niche theory framework using shape-constrained generalized additive models
Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): L. Citores, L. Ibaibarriaga, D.-J. Lee, M.J. Brewer, M. Santos, G. ChustAbstractAccording to ecological niche theory, species response curves are unimodal with respect to environmental gradients. A variety of statistical methods have been developed for species distribution modelling. A general problem with most of these habitat modelling approaches is that the estimated response curves can display biologically implausible shapes which do not respect ecological niche theory. This work proposes using...
A Dynamic Energy Budget model for the macroalga Ulva lactuca
Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): Romain Lavaud, Ramón Filgueira, André Nadeau, Laura Steeves, Thomas GuyondetAbstractMacroalgal blooms in eutrophic coastal waters around the globe constitute a rising issue for ecosystems and economic activities. Sometimes leading to anoxic events, a better understanding of its growth dynamics is necessary to develop mitigation strategies and inform policies on nutrient runoff management. The development of a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for the sea lettuce, Ulva lactuca, provides a generic...
Regular pattern formation regulates population dynamics: Logistic growth in cellular automata
Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): Jingyao Sun, Xinrong Li, Ning Chen, Yanli Wang, Guang SongAbstractRegular pattern formation is common in nature, but its ecological role in population dynamics is not well understood. In this article, we present a logistic probabilistic cellular automata (LPCA) model that combines a basic logistic growth model with two-dimensional spatial dynamics to simulate regular pattern formation. For model generality, only propagation and competition were assumed to occur in LPCA, and their dynamics follow local...
A Bayesian inversion framework to evaluate parameter and predictive inference of a simple soil respiration model in a cool-temperate forest in western Japan
Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): Motomu Toda, Kazuki Doi, Masae I. Ishihara, Wakana A. Azuma, Masayuki YokozawaAbstractCareful modelling of soil carbon sequestration is essential to evaluate future terrestrial feedback to the earth climate system through atmosphere–surface carbon exchange. Few studies have evaluated, in bio- and geo-applications, parameter and predictive uncertainty of soil respiration models by considering the difference between observations and model predictions; i.e. residual error, which is assumed neither to be...
Changes in upwelling regimes in a Mediterranean-type lagoon: A model application
Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): L. Aveytua-Alcazar, D. Melaku Canu, V.F. Camacho-Ibar, C. SolidoroAbstractSan Quintín Bay (SQB) is a coastal lagoon fertilized with cold, nutrient rich, marine water, that sustains the high productivity within the bay, in particular during upwelling events. The variations in the oceanic exchanges -and in particular changes in upwelling intensity and frequency, also related to climate change- are expected to alter the biogeochemical processes in SQB and in the other coastal systems along the California...
The canopy effect in filamentous algae: Improved modeling of Cladophora growth via a mechanistic representation of self-shading
Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): Anika Kuczynski, Ankita Bakshi, Martin T. Auer, Steven C. ChapraAbstractFor decades, nuisance algal growth has wreaked havoc in systems across the world. It has been particularly problematic in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Although managing nutrient loads has resulted in some mitigation, ecosystem perturbations in the last two decades have resulted in favorable conditions for a Cladophora resurgence.This paper reports on improvements to the Great Lakes Cladophora Model, which has been used to inform...
Corrigendum to “Why input matters: Selection of climate data sets for modelling the potential distribution of a treeline species in the Himalayan region” [Ecol. Modell. 359 (2017) 92–102]
Publication date: Available online 17 January 2020Source: Ecological ModellingAuthor(s): Maria Bobrowski, Udo Schickhoff
Biogeochemical cycling in the anthropocene: Quantifying global environment-economy exchanges
Publication date: Available online 14 January 2020Source: Ecological ModellingAuthor(s): Nicola J Smith, Garry W McDonald, Murray G PattersonAbstractThe Global Biogeochemical Cycles (GBCs) are extremely important biosphere functions, critical to the maintenance of conditions necessary for all life. Importantly, perturbation of the GBCs has the potential to affect the structure and functioning of the Earth system. While biogeochemistry research to date has largely focused on ‘natural’ processes, human economic activities are increasingly recognised as integral components of the GBCs. In...
Stochastic matrix metapopulation models with fast migration: Re-scaling survival to the fast scale
Publication date: Available online 13 January 2020Source: Ecological ModellingAuthor(s): Luis Sanz, Rafael Bravo de la ParraAbstractIn this work we address the analysis of discrete-time models of structured metapopulations subject to environmental stochasticity. Previous works on these models made use of the fact that migrations between the patches can be considered fast with respect to demography (maturation, survival, reproduction) in the population. It was assumed that, within each time step of the model, there are many fast migration steps followed by one slow demographic event. This...