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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology
ScienceDirect Publication: Ecological Modelling
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A spatial bayesian-network approach as a decision-making tool for ecological-risk prevention in land ecosystems
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Publication date: 1 March 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 419Author(s): Kai Guo, Xinchang Zhang, Xi Kuai, Zhifeng Wu, Yiyun Chen, Yi LiuAbstractPrevention of ecological risks in land ecosystems is crucial for environmental protection and sustainable land use. With increasingly severe land degradation, new and effective methods must be developed for the management of ecological risks. In this study, a conceptual decision-making model in ecological risk prevention was developed using the Bayesian belief network with a geographic information system (GIS) for the regional-scale land...
Suitable habitat mathematical model of common reed (Phragmites australis) in shallow lakes with coupling cellular automaton and modified logistic function
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Publication date: 1 March 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 419Author(s): Yujun Yi, Hongyi Xie, Yufeng Yang, Yang Zhou, Zhifeng YangAbstractSimulating of suitable habitat for the common reed (Phragmites australis) can provide theoretical support for water-resources managing of shallow lakes. Earlier research has focused on statistical models of shallow lakes and process-based dynamic models for coastal wetlands. However, process-based dynamic modeling for shallow lakes remains relatively incomplete, and the loss of biomass in unsuitable situations is seldom considered. This study...
Estimating dynamics of central hardwood forests using random forests
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Publication date: 1 March 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 419Author(s): Wu Ma, Guang Lin, Jingjing LiangAbstractEstimation of forest population dynamics is critical for forest management decisions making. In this study, we developed an innovative climate-sensitive matrix model using random forests (RF) algorithm to estimate tree diameter growth, tree mortality, and stand recruitment and consequently predict population dynamics of the central hardwood forests under four climate scenarios (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP]2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Based on post-sample...
Ability of the APSIM Next Generation Eucalyptus model to simulate complex traits across contrasting environments
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Publication date: 1 March 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 419Author(s): Elvis Felipe Elli, Neil Huth, Paulo Cesar Sentelhas, Rafaela Lorenzato Carneiro, Clayton Alcarde AlvaresAbstractProcess-based simulation models are promising tools to integrate biophysical process with soil and climate conditions and then simulate genetic and management impacts on forest productivity. The aim of this study was to adapt, calibrate, evaluate and improve the performance of the APSIM Next Generation Eucalyptus model for different major Brazilian Eucalyptus clones. To these ends, experimental...
A procedure for ranking parameter importance for estimation in predictive mechanistic models
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Publication date: 1 March 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 419Author(s): Craig R. Elevitch, C. Richard JohnsonAbstractWe begin with a mechanistic model that is considered to be a reasonably good predictor of the real-life system with a set of parameters determined from prior biophysical studies and expert knowledge. For complex mechanistic growth models, it is usually advantageous to numerically estimate a subset of the ‘most important’ parameters (i.e., those that most influence dynamic model behavior) based on data and fix the others at their estimated a priori values...
A dynamic model of cadmium bioaccumulation in Lamellidens marginalis, an edible shellfish in India
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Publication date: 1 March 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 419Author(s): Santu Ghosh, Mukul Mal, Sudipto MandalAbstractMussels, as food is widely accepted by people around the world as it possesses good nutritive value. Along with the local fishes, a gradual increase in the market demand of the Lamellidens marginalis is observed in the eastern part of India. These mussels are collected from reservoirs by the local people for their daily requirements and usual business. The reservoirs receive the wastewater or sewage from the nearby tanneries and households. Consequently, people are...
Assessing natural capital value in marine ecosystems through an environmental accounting model: A case study in Southern Italy
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Publication date: 1 March 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 419Author(s): Elvira Buonocore, Luca Appolloni, Giovanni F. Russo, Pier Paolo FranzeseAbstractCoastal and marine natural capital stocks provide a bundle of ecosystem services vital to humans. The delivery of these benefits depends on the protection and sustainable management of natural capital through effective nature conservation strategies. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are recognized worldwide as important tools to protect biodiversity while ensuring the delivery of ecosystem services and promoting sustainable human...
Water-energy nexus: The origin, development and prospect
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Publication date: 1 March 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 419Author(s): Tao Ding, Liang Liang, Kaile Zhou, Min Yang, Yuqi WeiAbstractThe water-energy nexus has gained great attention to both academe and practitioners in the past decade. In order to help expand the understanding in this field, we conduct a comprehensive literature review on water-energy nexus by using citation-based approach. A directional network is established in terms of citation relationships among 1185 related papers published in journals indexed by the Web of Science database from 2007 to 2019. Specifically...
A Bayesian inversion framework to evaluate parameter and predictive inference of a simple soil respiration model in a cool-temperate forest in western Japan
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Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): Motomu Toda, Kazuki Doi, Masae I. Ishihara, Wakana A. Azuma, Masayuki YokozawaAbstractCareful modelling of soil carbon sequestration is essential to evaluate future terrestrial feedback to the earth climate system through atmosphere–surface carbon exchange. Few studies have evaluated, in bio- and geo-applications, parameter and predictive uncertainty of soil respiration models by considering the difference between observations and model predictions; i.e. residual error, which is assumed neither to be...
The role of spatial units in modelling freshwater fish distributions: Comparing a subcatchment and river network approach using MaxEnt
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Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): Heiko Schmidt, Johannes Radinger, Daniel Teschlade, Stefan StollAbstractSpecies Distribution Models (SDM) are frequently used in ecological research, but the effects of model extent and granularity on model outcomes are rarely addressed. In freshwater SDMs, two different approaches are commonly used to define the granularity of the models, i.e. to subdivide entire river systems into appropriate spatial modelling units: river reaches on the actual river network or subcatchments. We built maximum entropy...
Modelling species presence–absence in the ecological niche theory framework using shape-constrained generalized additive models
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Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): L. Citores, L. Ibaibarriaga, D.-J. Lee, M.J. Brewer, M. Santos, G. ChustAbstractAccording to ecological niche theory, species response curves are unimodal with respect to environmental gradients. A variety of statistical methods have been developed for species distribution modelling. A general problem with most of these habitat modelling approaches is that the estimated response curves can display biologically implausible shapes which do not respect ecological niche theory. This work proposes using...
A Dynamic Energy Budget model for the macroalga Ulva lactuca
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Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): Romain Lavaud, Ramón Filgueira, André Nadeau, Laura Steeves, Thomas GuyondetAbstractMacroalgal blooms in eutrophic coastal waters around the globe constitute a rising issue for ecosystems and economic activities. Sometimes leading to anoxic events, a better understanding of its growth dynamics is necessary to develop mitigation strategies and inform policies on nutrient runoff management. The development of a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for the sea lettuce, Ulva lactuca, provides a generic...
Analysis of a multitrait population projection matrix reveals the evolutionary and demographic effects of a life history trade-off
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Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): Christophe F.D. Coste, Samuel PavardAbstractIt is increasingly recognized that incorporating life history trade-offs into evolutionary demography models requires trade-offs to be decomposed into fixed (a.k.a genetic) and individual (a.k.a dynamic) components. This is fundamental in order to understand how trade-offs are related to fixed and dynamic components of individual heterogeneities and generate variance in individual trajectories. Therefore, embedding such trade-offs into population projection...
Regular pattern formation regulates population dynamics: Logistic growth in cellular automata
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Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): Jingyao Sun, Xinrong Li, Ning Chen, Yanli Wang, Guang SongAbstractRegular pattern formation is common in nature, but its ecological role in population dynamics is not well understood. In this article, we present a logistic probabilistic cellular automata (LPCA) model that combines a basic logistic growth model with two-dimensional spatial dynamics to simulate regular pattern formation. For model generality, only propagation and competition were assumed to occur in LPCA, and their dynamics follow local...
A Bayesian network approach to refining ecological risk assessments: Mercury and the Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi)
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Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): John F. Carriger, Mace G. BarronAbstractTraditionally hazard quotients (HQs) have been computed for ecological risk assessment, often without quantifying the underlying uncertainties in the risk estimate. We demonstrate a Bayesian network approach to quantitatively assess uncertainties in HQs using a retrospective case study of dietary mercury (Hg) risks to Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi). The Bayesian network was parameterized, using exposure data from a previous Monte Carlo-based assessment of Hg...
Changes in upwelling regimes in a Mediterranean-type lagoon: A model application
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Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): L. Aveytua-Alcazar, D. Melaku Canu, V.F. Camacho-Ibar, C. SolidoroAbstractSan Quintín Bay (SQB) is a coastal lagoon fertilized with cold, nutrient rich, marine water, that sustains the high productivity within the bay, in particular during upwelling events. The variations in the oceanic exchanges -and in particular changes in upwelling intensity and frequency, also related to climate change- are expected to alter the biogeochemical processes in SQB and in the other coastal systems along the California...
The canopy effect in filamentous algae: Improved modeling of Cladophora growth via a mechanistic representation of self-shading
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Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): Anika Kuczynski, Ankita Bakshi, Martin T. Auer, Steven C. ChapraAbstractFor decades, nuisance algal growth has wreaked havoc in systems across the world. It has been particularly problematic in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Although managing nutrient loads has resulted in some mitigation, ecosystem perturbations in the last two decades have resulted in favorable conditions for a Cladophora resurgence.This paper reports on improvements to the Great Lakes Cladophora Model, which has been used to inform...
A mixed integer programming approach for multi-action planning for threat management
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Publication date: 15 February 2020Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 418Author(s): José Salgado-Rojas, Eduardo Álvarez-Miranda, Virgilio Hermoso, Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo, Andrés WeintraubAbstractPlanning for management actions that address threats to biodiversity is important for securing its long term persistence. However, systematic conservation planning (SCP) has traditionally overlooked this aspect and just focused on identifying priority areas without any recommendation on actions needed. This paper develops a mixed integer mathematical programming (MIP) approach for the...
Corrigendum to “Why input matters: Selection of climate data sets for modelling the potential distribution of a treeline species in the Himalayan region” [Ecol. Modell. 359 (2017) 92–102]
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Publication date: Available online 17 January 2020Source: Ecological ModellingAuthor(s): Maria Bobrowski, Udo Schickhoff
Biogeochemical cycling in the anthropocene: Quantifying global environment-economy exchanges
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Publication date: Available online 14 January 2020Source: Ecological ModellingAuthor(s): Nicola J Smith, Garry W McDonald, Murray G PattersonAbstractThe Global Biogeochemical Cycles (GBCs) are extremely important biosphere functions, critical to the maintenance of conditions necessary for all life. Importantly, perturbation of the GBCs has the potential to affect the structure and functioning of the Earth system. While biogeochemistry research to date has largely focused on ‘natural’ processes, human economic activities are increasingly recognised as integral components of the GBCs. In...