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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology
ScienceDirect Publication: Ecological Modelling
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Using macroecological constraints on spatial biodiversity predictions under climate change: the modelling method matters
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Publication date: 24 December 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 390Author(s): Mirko Di Febbraro, Manuela D’Amen, Pasquale Raia, Davide De Rosa, Anna Loy, Antoine GuisanAbstractThe prevailing method for estimating the potential impact of future climate change on biological communities is to stack binary predictions from species distribution models (binary stacked species distribution models, bS-SDM). However, it has been argued that bS-SDM may overestimate species richness and, hence, community composition. Alternative approaches, such as SESAM (‘Spatially Explicit Species...
Conjoint analysis of nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur metabolism: A case study of Liaoning Province, China
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Publication date: 24 December 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 390Author(s): Chengkang Gao, Shuaibing Zhang, Kaihui Song, Hongming Na, Fan Tian, Menghui Zhang, Wengang GaoAbstractThe three types of elements nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and Sulfur (S) are inextricably linked from the source to the destination throughout the system. To analyze the environmental load caused by the three elements, this study established a material metabolism model to quantify the relationships among metabolic processes on the provincial scale and examined their environmental implications based on...
Estimating model- and sampling-related uncertainty in large-area growth predictions
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Publication date: 24 December 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 390Author(s): L.C. Melo, R. Schneider, M. FortinAbstractEstimating uncertainty in forest growth predictions is essential to support large-area policies and decisions. The aim of this study was to estimate model and sampling uncertainties at a regional level. To do this, we generated forest growth predictions for three ecotypes in the Bas-Saint-Laurent region of Quebec, Canada. Predictions were generated using the ARTEMIS growth model that allows for stochasticity in some of the sub-models. We used a bootstrap hybrid...
Scale dependence and parameter sensitivity of the EPIC model in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of north China
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Publication date: 24 December 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 390Author(s): Jianmin Qiao, Qian Cao, Yupeng Liu, Quanyuan WuAbstractUnder the background of rapid population growth, achieving accurate assessments of crop yields is critical to national policy adjustment and food security. Among all the evaluation methods for crop yields, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model is considered to be an effective tool. Since published, it has been widely applied on local, regional, and global scales. However, in its practical applications, the impact of scale variation...
Modeling social–economic water cycling and the water–land nexus: A framework and an application
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Publication date: 24 December 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 390Author(s): Xing Li, Qian Zhang, Yu Liu, Jia Song, Feng WuAbstractWater resources are an essential and determining factor for food production, ecosystem health, and socio-economic development. The socio–economic water cycling system is a complex adaptive system. Changes in the socio-economic system at the macro level, such as industrial transformation, technical progress, and water price reform, will have impacts on water resources utilization at the micro level. In this study, we applied the multi-region computable...
AHC: An integrated numerical model for simulating agroecosystem processes—Model description and application
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Publication date: 24 December 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 390Author(s): Xu Xu, Chen Sun, Fengtian Neng, Jing Fu, Guanhua HuangAbstractThis article introduces the AHC model as a new tool for modeling and assessing the agroecosystem processes. The AHC, as a one-dimensional numerical physical model, simulates the soil water and salt/nitrogen dynamics, heat transport, and crop growth and yield in various soil-crop environments. The key features of the AHC include that it provides the optional function for simulating the fate of salt or nitrogen; it has an efficient global method...
Sensitivity of diet choices and environmental outcomes to a selective grazing algorithm
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Publication date: 24 December 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 390Author(s): Cody J. Zilverberg, Jay Angerer, Jimmy Williams, Loretta J. Metz, Keith HarmoneyAbstractWe modified the grazing module of the APEX simulation model to allow for selective grazing of plant species and dietary-specific excretion of urine and feces. To determine the sensitivity of these changes on nutrient flows, vegetation responses, and grazer diet, we simulated the conditions of a 20-year historic grazing treatment conducted in Kansas, United States of America. Simulated scenarios were a factorial of 2...
A new mechanistic theory of self-thinning: Adaptive behaviour of plants explains the shape and slope of self-thinning trajectories
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Publication date: 24 December 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 390Author(s): Ronny Peters, Adewole Olagoke, Uta BergerAbstractThe scaling exponent of the biomass-density relationship of even-aged plant populations – often described as the slope of the self-thinning line - and its presumed universality has been a subject of debate for a long time. Comprehensive observational studies, mainly in the last century, yielded even shifting slopes, for which, until now, the theoretical basis was not fully clarified.With a new mechanistic individual-based plant growth model, the...
A squeeze in the suitable fire interval: Simulating the persistence of fire-killed plants in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem under drier conditions
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Publication date: 10 December 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 389Author(s): Julia Henzler, Hanna Weise, Neal J. Enright, Susanne Zander, Britta TietjenAbstractMediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) harbor an exceptionally high biodiversity of vascular plants. At the same time, climatic conditions in many MTE regions are projected to become both drier and hotter, and fire intervals shorter. The Interval Squeeze conceptual model integrates the potential effects of a changing climate and fire regimes on perennial plant population persistence and postulates that warmer, drier conditions...
An evolutionary game theoretic model of rhino horn devaluation
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Publication date: 10 December 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 389Author(s): Nikoleta E. Glynatsi, Vincent Knight, Tamsin E. LeeAbstractRhino populations are at a critical level due to the demand for rhino horn and the subsequent poaching. Wildlife managers attempt to secure rhinos with approaches to devalue the horn, the most common of which is dehorning. Game theory has been used to examine the interaction of poachers and wildlife managers where a manager can either ‘dehorn’ their rhinos or leave the horn attached and poachers may behave ‘selectively’ or...
Network-agent based model for simulating the dynamic spatial network structure of complex ecological systems
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Publication date: 10 December 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 389Author(s): Taylor M. Anderson, Suzana DragićevićAbstractNon-spatial ecological networks provide insight into the organization and interaction between biological entities. More recently, biological dispersal is modelled using spatial networks, static sets of georeferenced habitat patches that connect based on a species’ maximum dispersal distance. However, dispersal is complex, where spatial patterns at the landscape scale emerge from interactions between ecological entities and landscape features at much finer...
Inter-annual rainfall variability may foster lake regime shifts: An example from Lake Bourget in France
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Publication date: 10 December 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 389Author(s): Antoine Brias, Jean-Denis Mathias, Guillaume DeffuantAbstractThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change anticipates increasing extreme rain events in the 21st century, leading to more frequent floods and more phosphorus transported into lakes, enhancing the risk of their eutrophication. This paper reports research assessing this risk on Lake Bourget in France, by coupling a statistical estimation of annual phosphorus transportation from annual rainfall and a dynamical model estimating the evolution of...
A study on antimony migration in soils using an artificial neural network model and a convection-dispersion diffusion model
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Publication date: 10 December 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 389Author(s): Zaijin Sun, Yuxian Shangguan, Yuan Wei, Benying Su, Changzhi Zhou, Hong HouAbstractWe conducted a small soil column penetration test and lysimeter experiment in four soils (Isohumosol, Ferrosol, Primosol, and Sandy soil), to generate a migration model for antimony (Sb) in soil based on the convection-diffusion equation. Variation of the Sb concentration was also simulated by the Artificial neural networks model (ANN) model. The convection-dispersion model will provide a reference for the transfer of Sb in...