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Ecological Modelling

International Journal on Ecological Modelling and Systems Ecology
ScienceDirect Publication: Ecological Modelling
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Modeling the impact of climate change on a rare color morph in fish
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): Iordanka N. Panayotova, Lisa HorthAbstractSpecies are typically comprised of a large number of genotypes, some of which are rare. Rare genotypes that are temperature-sensitive will predictably be impacted by climate change more profoundly than common genotypes for which gene expression does not depend on temperature. Computer simulations were used in this study to analyze the impact of changing temperatures on a very rare melanic morph that expresses a temperature-sensitive phenotype and is found in an...
A spatially discrete, integral projection model and its application to invasive carp
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): Richard A. Erickson, Eric A. Eager, Patrick M. Kocovsky, David C. Glover, Jahn L. Kallis, K.R. LongAbstractNatural resource managers and ecologists often desire an understanding of spatial dynamics such as migration, dispersion, and meta-population dynamics. Network-node models can capture these salient features. Additionally, the state-variable used with many species may be appropriately modeled as a continuous variable (e.g., length) and management activities sometimes can only target individuals of...
Predicting bird collisions with wind turbines: Comparison of the new empirical Flux Collision Model with the SOSS Band model
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): J.C. Kleyheeg-Hartman, K.L. Krijgsveld, M.P. Collier, M.J.M. Poot, A.R. Boon, T.A. Troost, S. DirksenAbstractCollision of birds with wind turbines is an important negative effect of wind energy generation. Assessments of the potential numbers of bird collisions are required prior to the construction of wind farms. Collision rate models (CRMs) are used as a tool to estimate numbers of collision victims for wind farm initiatives.In the past couple of decades various CRMs have been developed. These models are...
Environmental variability and density dependence in the temporal Taylor’s law
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): Takashi Saitoh, Joel E. CohenAbstractTaylor’s law (TL) is an empirical rule describing the approximate relationship between the variance and the mean of population density: log10(variance) ≈ log10(a) + b × log10(mean). Although TL has been verified in various ecological systems, essential questions remain unanswered. Why is TL so widely observed? What mechanisms or processes generate TL? Why do most observed slopes b fall in the limited range 1 < b < 2? Density-dependent movement of...
Integrated modelling of Atlantic mackerel distribution patterns and movements: A template for dynamic impact assessments
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): Stefan Heinänen, Magda Ewa Chudzinska, Jonas Brandi Mortensen, Theophilus Zhi En Teo, Kjell Rong Utne, Lise Doksæter Sivle, Frank ThomsenAbstractModelling is important for impact assessments of anthropogenic pressures on wildlife. Models are particularly useful when dealing with complex dynamic systems (as pelagic ecosystems) where data are limited and if various ‘what if’ scenarios should be tested. The aim of this study was to produce and implement an integrated modelling approach, linking high...
Assessing population impacts of toxicant-induced disruption of breeding behaviours using an individual-based model for the three-spined stickleback
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): Kate S. Mintram, A. Ross Brown, Samuel K. Maynard, Chun Liu, Sarah-Jane Parker, Charles R. Tyler, Pernille ThorbekAbstractThe effects of toxicant exposure on individuals captured in standard environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not necessarily translate proportionally into effects at the population-level. Population models can incorporate population resilience, physiological susceptibility, and likelihood of exposure, and can therefore be employed to extrapolate from individual- to population-level...
A spatial agent-based model of the disease vector Ixodes scapularis to explore host-tick associations
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): Samniqueka J. Halsey, James R. MillerAbstractTick-borne diseases are increasing worldwide and have a progressively negative impact on human health. The black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is the known vector of several emerging tick-borne diseases. To effectively manage diseases requires enhanced knowledge of the interactions of the tick, its hosts, and the environment. Modeling approaches may offer a way to evaluate vector control strategies since it is impossible to conduct large-scale experiments in...
Longitudinal variation in energy flow networks along a large subtropical river, China
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): Sai Wang, Lin Wang, Hao-Yen Chang, Feng Li, Jin-Peng Tang, Xing-An Zhou, Xing Li, Shi-Mi Tian, Hsing-Juh Lin, Yang YangAbstractTo understand the longitudinal variation in the structure and functioning of large river ecosystems, six Ecopath models were constructed to exhibit the energy flows of aquatic food webs along the subtropical East River in China. Input parameters were primarily obtained from field data collected in 2012–2016; model outputs were estimated by network analysis. Longitudinally...
A hydrodynamic analytical model of fish tilt angle: Implications regarding acoustic target strength modelling
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): F. Agustín Membiela, Matías G. dell’ErbaAbstractWe implement a simple hydrodynamical model to study the behavioural swimming tilt angle of open swimbladder fish. For this purpose we analysed the force stability which act upon a fish swimming horizontally at a constant velocity. Furthermore, the open swimbladder compression at depth is modelled by Boyle's law. With these, our model gives us an analytical solution relating depth with body tilt angle and velocity. An interesting result that surges from...
Accounting for misidentification and heterogeneity in occupancy studies using hidden Markov models
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): Julie Louvrier, Thierry Chambert, Eric Marboutin, Olivier GimenezAbstractOccupancy models allow assessing species occurrence while accounting for imperfect detection. As with any statistical models, occupancy models rely on several assumptions amongst which (i) there should be no unmodelled heterogeneity in the detection probability and (ii) the species should not be detected when absent from a site, in other words there should be no false positives (e.g., due to misidentification). In the real world...
Fuzzy risk assessment modelling of wild animal life in Bijar protected area
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): Delnia Hajiahmadi, Jamil AmanollahiAbstractBijar protected area (BPA) is suffering from land use change and livestock grazing. Since 1977, the number of main species (Ovis orientalis gmelini) living in BPA has reduced from 2000 to 435. In order to study the wild animal life (WAL) risk of BPA, a Fuzzy model in Geographical information system (GIS) environment and remote sensing was utilized. The seven selected input indices for the model were 'BPA conversion rate', 'Natural resource', 'Population density...
The annual abundance of dengue and Zika vector Aedes albopictus and its stubbornness to suppression
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): Bo Zheng, Jianshe Yu, Zhiyong Xi, Moxun TangAbstractThe mosquito Aedes albopictus is a competent vector for more than 25 arboviruses, including dengue and Zika, and the sole vector for the 2014 unprecedented dengue outbreak in southern China. Due to the lack of a deep understanding of how its seasonal abundance is tied to environments, current methods have failed to control its prevalence and expansion on a large scale. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model of difference equations that...
Mangrove increases resiliency of the French Guiana shrimp fishery facing global warming
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): Bassirou Diop, Fabian Blanchard, Nicolas SanzAbstractThis paper deals with the biological, ecological and economic impact of global warming and mangrove habitat availability on the French Guiana shrimp fishery. A dynamic bio-economic model is built by employing a shrimp stock's growth function depending on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and on mangrove surface. The model is empirically calibrated for the French Guiana shrimp fishery using time series collected over 1995–2011. First, two Cobb-Douglas...
Modelling the life cycle of Salpa thompsoni
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): Natasha Henschke, Evgeny A. Pakhomov, Jürgen Groeneveld, Bettina MeyerAbstractSalpa thompsoni is an important grazer in the Southern Ocean. It is found from the Subtropical Convergence southward to the coastal Antarctic Seas but being most abundant in the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone. Low temperatures appear to negatively affect their development, limiting their ability to occur in the krill dominated high Antarctic ecosystems. Yet reports indicate that with ocean warming S. thompsoni have experienced a...
On predicting species yields in multispecies communities: Quantifying the accuracy of the linear Lotka-Volterra generalized model
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): Hugo FortAbstractThe linear generalized Lotka–Volterra equations (LGLVE) constitute the simplest theoretical framework for ecological communities involving different kinds of interspecific interactions ―e.g. competition, facilitation. These equations have been often criticized as being too simple to model real systems.This study has two main goals: First, to test the LGLVE as a quantitative tool for describing/explaining/predicting the equilibrium species abundances. That is, how accurately the LGLVE...
Improved spatial model for Amazonian deforestation: An empirical assessment and spatial bias analysis
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Publication date: 10 November 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 387Author(s): Rodrigo Antônio de Souza, Paulo De MarcoAbstractRainforest deforestation is a process controlled by both environmental and socioeconomic factors unevenly distributed in space. We tested the efficacy of a Machine Learning approach, based on MaxEnt models, to predict deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, with special attention to the effects of the distance to the areas with higher present deforestation rates on model predictions. We use a set of variables that describe most of the mechanisms involved in...
Bayesian state-space models reveal unobserved off-shore nocturnal migration from Motus data
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Publication date: 24 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 386Author(s): Justin W. Baldwin, Katie Leap, John T. Finn, Jennifer R. SmetzerAbstractRecent advances in wildlife tracking technology, including the Motus system, have allowed researchers to continuously track small organisms with lightweight radio transmitters over large spatial and temporal ranges. The quantity and format of data generated by the Motus system is unprecedented and requires novel statistical methods. Building from the bsam package in R, we propose new biologically informed Bayesian state-space models for...
Combining literature-based and data-driven fuzzy models to predict brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change
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Publication date: 24 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 386Author(s): Rafael Muñoz-Mas, Patricia Marcos-Garcia, Antonio Lopez-Nicolas, Francisco J. Martínez-García, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Francisco Martínez-CapelAbstractA fuzzy rule-based system combining empirical data on hydraulic preferences and literature information on temperature requirements was used to foresee the brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change. The climatic scenarios for the Cabriel River (Eastern Iberian Peninsula) corresponded to two Representative...
The effect of large sample sizes on ecological niche models: Analysis using a North American rodent, Peromyscus maniculatus
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Publication date: 24 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 386Author(s): Robert A. Boria, Jessica L. BloisAbstractCorrelative ecological niche models (ENMs) aim to approximate the environmentally suitable areas for a species. Recently, studies have explored the minimum number of occurrence records needed to implement ENMs; however, cosmopolitan species with many occurrence records have their own challenges and the effects of larger sample sizes on ENM performance have yet to be determined. To address this issue, we focused on a New World rodent, Peromyscus maniculatus. We...
Dynamic modeling of organic carbon fates in lake ecosystems
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Publication date: 24 October 2018Source: Ecological Modelling, Volume 386Author(s): Ian M. McCullough, Hilary A. Dugan, Kaitlin J. Farrell, Ana M. Morales-Williams, Zutao Ouyang, Derek Roberts, Facundo Scordo, Sarah L. Bartlett, Samantha M. Burke, Jonathan P. Doubek, Flora E. Krivak-Tetley, Nicholas K. Skaff, Jamie C. Summers, Kathleen C. Weathers, Paul C. HansonAbstractLakes are active processors of organic carbon (OC) and play important roles in landscape and global carbon cycling. Allochthonous OC loads from the landscape, along with autochthonous OC loads from primary production, are...